Iranian nuclear: resumption of negotiations in Vienna in a tense climate

Discussions to save the international agreement on nuclear Iranian closed last week in Vienna on a positive note. They resume on Thursday, but in the meantime, Tehran’s decision to enrich uranium up to 60% has thrown a chill.

By approaching the 90% required for military use, the Islamic Republic “Puts pressure on everyone”, summarizes a European diplomat.

After a good start, “It’s true that this complicates things”, he said before a new meeting of the states parties to the agreement (Germany, France, United Kingdom, China, Russia and Iran), scheduled for 12:30 p.m. local time (10:30 GMT).

How to react ? This is the question that arises behind the scenes, as President Hassan Rouhani reaffirmed on Wednesday that his country’s atomic ambitions were exclusively “Peaceful”.

The imminent crossing of this unprecedented 60% threshold is a ” reply “ at “Nuclear terrorism” Israel after the explosion on Sunday in the Natanz enrichment plant, argues Tehran, which openly accuses Israel of having sabotaged this plant.

Berlin, Paris and London have warned against any escalation, “By any country whatsoever”, while stating that Iran’s announcement of the launch of 60% enrichment is a “Serious development […] contrary to the constructive spirit ” discussions.

But Moscow prefers to see it as a sign that we must act quickly.

“This proves that the reestablishment of the JCPOA”, an English acronym which commonly designates the agreement concluded in 2015 in the Austrian capital, “Is the only viable solution to bring back the Iranian nuclear program” back on track, wrote on Twitter the Russian ambassador to international organizations in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov.

“Emergency”

Iran repeated it on Wednesday: to stop this “Dangerous spiral”, the United States must lift the sanctions imposed by US President Donald Trump, who withdrew the United States from this agreement in 2018.

The JCPOA had allowed a reduction in punitive measures against the Islamic Republic in exchange for a drastic reduction in its nuclear activities, under the control of the UN, in order to ensure that it does not seek to acquire the atomic bomb.

This is one of the subjects on which the experts are working in Vienna, under the aegis of the European Union (EU), with the indirect participation of an American delegation, housed in another hotel.

“We are focused on the diplomatic channel to move forward”White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said the day before the talks resumed. “We know it will be a long process, but we see (these discussions) as a positive sign”.

“We believe that we can move things forward in a constructive way, even if they are indirect negotiations”, said Ms. Psaki, interviewed during a briefing on the role of the United States in the Vienna process.

“The events of the last few days remind each side that the status quo is synonymous with lose-lose for both camps” and “Reinforce the urgency”, commented to AFP Ali Vaez, specialist in the Iranian file within the think tank International Crisis Group (ICG).

“It is clear that the longer the diplomatic process drags on, the greater the risk that it will be hampered by saboteurs and ill-intentioned persons”, he adds, while Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday that he would not allow the talks to drag on ” lengthways “.

There are many obstacles, however, and defining a roadmap acceptable to Iran and the United States, the two enemy powers, will take time, experts warn.

In the meantime, Tehran is reducing its « breakout time », or the time to acquire the fissile material necessary for the manufacture of a bomb, worries the European diplomat.

“The sky will not fall on our heads the day after the start of Iran’s 60% uranium enrichment”, emphasizes Ali Vaez, “But the concerns will grow as soon as they have accumulated a significant amount of material”.

According to him, over the past two decades, “Only diplomacy has proven its effectiveness in containing the Iranian nuclear program”, while “Sanctions or sabotage” have invariably failed.

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