After the tip of mourning in Iran on Thursday (23/5), for the surprising loss of life of President Ebrahim Raishi when the helicopter he was using in crashed, Vima spoke to the Iranian lecturer in Politics and Worldwide Relations on the Australian State College, Alam Saleh.
Mr Saleh doesn’t count on any shake-up because the system is “properly established and ready, because it proved after the loss of life of Ayatollah Khomeini” in 1989.
He additionally expresses confidence that there will probably be no adjustments in Tehran’s insurance policies at house and overseas. “Nonetheless, there will probably be a fantastic wrestle throughout the hard-line wing of the regime”, estimates the Iranian analyst, pending the announcement of the approval of the nominations for the emergency presidential elections, on June 28.
“The loss of life of a rustic’s president can create an influence and safety vacuum, doubtlessly undermining it in home and worldwide affairs. In Iran this isn’t the case. The supreme chief of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, is the ultimate arbiter of choices.
Furthermore, the establishments in Iran are properly established to interchange the president rapidly and easily. That’s the reason we won’t see the creation of a political vacuum within the subsequent two months.”
“Division amongst hardliners”
The Kremlin means that it was not an accident however an assassination aimed toward destabilizing Iran. Tehran, however, didn’t even trace at this. What’s the present feeling in regards to the accident within the inside of the nation?
Tehran appears thus far satisfied that it was an accident with out third occasion involvement. He would not blame, he would not title Israel, although Israel has previously assassinated many Iranian officers, in significantly complicated operations. Nonetheless, if a overseas nation had been concerned within the accident, and on this case Israel, this may robotically imply the declaration of battle, which might develop right into a nuclear battle since Israel can also be a nuclear energy.
Have the procedures for the collection of the presidential candidates begun?
It’s anticipated to start the approval of the candidates, who will principally come from the bloc of hardliners and conservatives. If something characterizes the upcoming presidential election, it’s the division between hardliners in many various factions, who need to seize the chance to rise to energy by way of the presidential seat.
There’ll subsequently be a wrestle throughout the hardline wing of the regime in Iran. Any more, you will need to see how the supreme chief will outline the elections.
“The subsequent president will certainly be one of many hardliners”
In relation to what?
In relation to the place he chooses to focus. If he focuses on the economic system, there’s a appropriate candidate, Mohammad Mohber, former vp and present interim president.
If he desires to deal with safety, there may be additionally the appropriate individual: the Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. However he might need to present a brand new face. It has the potential of totally different choices.
Are there different names being heard for the presidency?
Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Can there be a nomination from outdoors the ultraconservative pool?
There isn’t any such hope. The subsequent president will certainly be one of many hardliners. The ultimate criterion will come up from the orientation. Will it’s economic system or security?
“Iranian overseas coverage is designed by the supreme chief and the deep state”
Are reformers foreclosed?
The reformers don’t have any hope. At the least they may permit a reasonable to run for workplace, though I discover that unlikely as properly. The Council of the Revolutionary Guards selects who will probably be candidates. This can be very unpredictable what’s going to occur. A number of the most influential politicians of the nation had been excluded within the earlier presidential elections.
Within the 2021 presidential election, turnout was the bottom within the historical past of the Islamic Republic. Do you suppose that within the subsequent election it might be even decrease?
The latest parliamentary elections had even decrease turnout than the 2021 presidential election. If they permit a reasonable determine to run within the June presidential election, there could also be an elevated turnout.
“Iran and the US have at all times had secret contacts”
How can the developments have an effect on the broader area?
Iranian overseas coverage is designed by the Supreme Chief and the Deep State. There will probably be no change within the nation’s overseas coverage regionally, in relation to alliances, but in addition extra broadly.
American and Iranian officers met, towards the backdrop of the battle in Gaza, in Oman over Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran and the US have at all times had secret contacts.
Will they be affected by the newest developments?
Under no circumstances. They are going to proceed seamlessly. And they don’t solely concern the nuclear program, but in addition regional points, Israel et al.
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