After the events of last week, when a high-ranking member of the Hezbollah movement Fuad Shukr died in Beirut after an attack by Israel, and subsequently the Israelis killed the political leader of the Hamas movement Ismail Haniya in Tehran, the war between Iran and Israel seems more real again. Iran promises severe retaliation to its arch-enemy. What could a potential conflict look like, and are fears of nuclear war justified?
Why is there talk of the danger of war between Israel and Iran?
The situation escalated after the assassination of Hamas commander Haniyeh, which was an important act of Israel’s war against the terrorist movement Hamas. According to Yohan Plesner of the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI), cited by the agency Bloombergthis is part of Israel’s long-term strategy in the fight against terrorism.
The tension between Israel and Iran is long-standing, and a situation like now, when a high-ranking representative of an Iranian ally was killed right in Tehran, represents a more than suitable pretext for a possible Iranian strike.
In what direction is the situation likely to develop?
According to Irena Kalhousová, director of the Herzl Center for Israeli Studies at Charles University, we can expect retaliatory actions by Iran or Hezbollah for the two mentioned assassinations.
“The question is how massive the retaliation will be and how Israel will subsequently react,” adds Kalhousová, adding that there have even been reports of a possible preemptive attack in Israel. In this scenario, Israel would not wait for a strike from Iran, but would strike first. “In any case, the situation is the closest to a massive regional escalation since October 7,” he adds.
Who are the allies of both parties?
In the event of a war, Iran has on its side Shiite militias in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon, which it financially supports. It is the Lebanese militia Hezbollah that could play a significant role in the event of its involvement in a future war. According to the Israelis, the organization has a relatively rich military arsenal and has been attacking targets in Israel since the beginning of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Russia, which has long-term high-quality relations with Iran, can significantly help Tehran with the supply of technology. This is also confirmed by the visit of the Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, to Tehran on Monday. According to the information of the diary The New York Times in addition, Russia has already started supplying Iran with modern radar systems and air defense equipment.
The United States and Great Britain are mainly on the Israeli side. The US Department of Defense said on its website that it is already strengthening its military presence in the region in response to current tensions.
Is there a threat of nuclear war?
Although Israel has never officially confirmed the possession of a nuclear arsenal, it is widely believed that it does. In Iran, on the other hand, there are suspicions about its development, but it is impossible to say exactly at what stage it may be.
According to Kalhousová, however, the possibility of nuclear escalation is not on the agenda. “Iran is not known to have nuclear weapons, although it appears to be close to being able to produce them, and Israel is not considering nuclear weapons at this stage,” he adds.
How will other states in the region and allies react?
The primary goal of the United States, Israel’s main ally, is to reduce tensions and the risk of confrontation. According to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was quoted by the English daily Financial Timesthe Americans are conducting intensive negotiations with states in the Middle East region in an effort to de-escalate the situation.
“It can be assumed that Israel’s allies will get involved only by helping to shoot down missiles, as was the case with Iran’s attack in April. At that time, Israel was helped by the United States of America, Great Britain, France, Jordan, and apparently the airspace of other Sunni Arab countries in the region was also used,” Kalhousová comments on the situation. According to her, only in the case of an attack on the interests of these states could there be direct involvement of other states in the conflict.
VIDEO: Hamas likes war. The conflict is at the forefront of interest and Israel is becoming isolated, says expert Kalhousová in the program FLOW.
Interview with political scientist Irena Kalhousová about the situation in Israel for the program FLOW • e15
