di Shors Surme –
Two important issues have emerged from the trilateral summit held in Tehran between Russia, Iran and Turkey.
Formally, the meeting was part of the “Astana process”, the diplomacy between the three parties that aims to secure peace in Syria, but it was also an occasion for Russia and Iran to assert their stronger relations in the wake of the February 24 Russian attack on Ukraine.
Turkish threat to Rojava.
Iran staunchly opposes a Turkish assault on northern Syria, while Russia does not appear to be willing to give Ankara the green light for such an attack, even though Moscow has not been as clear as Tehran in publicly declaring its opposition.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan however affirmed at the Tehran summit his intention to launch such an attack to push back the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from a 30km deep zone along Turkey’s border with Syria.
“Erdogan underlined Turkey’s determination to purge such terrorist groups as the YPG/PKK from Syria,” reported Turkish newspaper Sabah.
“Erdogan said that Ankara expects its partners in Astana to sincerely support its efforts to establish peace and stability in northern Syria,” the Turkish newspaper continued.
Russia’s war in Ukraine is not going well for Moscow, which has been forced to withdraw troops from Syria. Erdogan may see an opportunity in this, but it is unclear what action he will take, especially as the United States and the European Union have also expressed their strong opposition to this move.
Iranian support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Before the summit, Putin met with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has strongly supported Russia’s war in Ukraine. Khamenei told Putin that if Russia hadn’t started the war, NATO, which he called a “dangerous creature”, would have started it sooner or later.
“War is a violent and difficult matter, and the Islamic Republic is not at all happy with civilians involved in it, but as far as Ukraine is concerned, if you had not taken the initiative, the other side would have taken the initiative and caused war,” Khamenei said.
“NATO would know no bounds if the way was open,” he continued, “and if it weren’t stopped in Ukraine, it would start the same war using Ukraine as an excuse.”
The New York Times characterized Khamenei’s statement as “wholehearted approval of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
“It was a signal,” said the Times, “that the long-contested relationship between Moscow and Tehran could become a full-fledged partnership.”
“The invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing Western sanctions have brought Russia and Iran closer together,” reported The Wall Street Journal.
“Putin’s arrival in Iran, ostensibly under the banner of the Astana group to discuss Syria with Iran and Turkey, is another sign of the rapid evolution of Russian-Iranian relations,” Behnam ben Taleblu, senior told Kurdistan 24 fellow of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
“The West cannot afford to ignore the ties between Putin’s Russia and Khamenei’s Iran,” advises Taleblu. “Iran has what Putin needs, at least for the short to medium term,” including “sanctions-breaking experience and low-cost asymmetric military capabilities ready to be transferred,” such as large quantities of armed drones that Iran is preparing to hand over to Russia, US officials have warned.
Ben Taleblu suggested that Putin’s visit to Tehran “should be a wake-up call for those who focus on the ‘competition between great powers'”.
“Tackling ‘near-competitors’ like Russia and China is not limited to their respective regions, it is a global affair,” he said.
Indeed, the EU appears to have been particularly slow to acknowledge and absorb this key point: Iran is aligned with Russia. As a result, he dragged the United States into an embarrassing and counterproductive diplomatic operation.
Last month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Tehran and along with his Iranian counterparts said they supported resuming long-stalled talks on renewing the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
This was enough to make the EU foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, very quickly travel to Tehran, where he announced the resumption of nuclear negotiations in a new venue: Qatar.
But Borrell and his staff have not done the due diligence one would expect from seasoned diplomats. They have not checked that the differences between the United States and Iran that had blocked the previous round of negotiations had been overcome.
As a result, new talks in Qatar ended in failure after only two days.
Read more: Iran nuclear talks wrap up after just two days, as doubts grow over efforts
The Israeli foreign minister criticized Borrell for his role in organizing the latest round of talks, warning that “It is a strategic mistake that sends the wrong message to Iran.”