The think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes that the Iranian defense chief, Mohammad Bagheri, is said to have met with the Belarusian defense minister, Viktor Khrehnin, on Tuesday this week.
Bagheri is said to have expressed a desire for closer defense cooperation between Iran, Belarus and Russia.
– Iran wants to establish drone factories in Belarus and Russia, which will help Russia acquire Iranian drones faster. It also entails a number of economic and military advantages for Iran, writes ISW.
Kamikaze drones
Tankesmien claims it is likely that the countries discussed establishing a factory for the Iranian Shahed drones, often called kamikazed drones.
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On 31 July, the aforementioned Krehnin and Iran’s Minister of Defence, Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, entered into an agreement on military cooperation.
– Belarus has a special place in Iranian foreign policy, said the Iranian defense minister when the agreement between the countries was presented, according to the Iranian news agency Irna.
ISW writes that in 2022, Western media speculated whether Iran could receive the Russian SU-35 fighter jet in exchange for drones and other military material. But Iranian military leaders are said to have been skeptical about this. Instead, advanced Russian surveillance programs and hacking tools are said to have been exchanged for the drones.
Attack on the factories
But what does it mean that the drones can now potentially be built in Belarus and Russia?
– Production in Russia or Belarus will be able to facilitate logistics, make the road from the production site to the operational area shorter. But it will also constitute another target that the Ukrainian side can potentially hit, says Tobias Sæther, researcher at the Ukraine project of the Defense Staff School.
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One of the prerequisites for Western arms donations to Ukraine has been that the arms should not be used against Russian territories. This has been criticized by several experts who believe that Ukraine is “fighting with its hands tied behind its back” as a result.
– When it comes to hitting targets inside Russian territory, the Ukrainians are probably restraining themselves, following pressure from Western partners who fear an escalation of hostilities if the Ukrainians go more often and harder against targets inside Russian territory, says Sæther.
– Very important role
The shaded drones in question are often equipped with explosive charges that detonate at their target – often called kamikaze drones. They can also contribute with images from the battlefield and provide important intelligence information.
– Drones have played a very important role in the war. They are used by both Russia and Ukraine along the front line. Both for command and control with regard to own troops, reconnaissance and intelligence and for dropping bombs. The Iranian kamikazed drones have a long range, and have also been used by Russia against Ukrainian cities, says Sæther.
Last Wednesday, the authorities in the Ukrainian port city of Odesa claimed that several fires broke out in the city as a result of Russian drone attacks. 40,000 tonnes of grain are claimed to have been destroyed as a result of similar attacks recently.
– Russia’s objective is to create harm and fear in the population. But strong Ukrainian air defense in urban areas means that you mainly only achieve the latter, and even that to a limited extent, says Sæther and adds:
– Kamikaze drones are unlikely to play a major role in the war on their own, but they are part of a larger picture where different weapon systems together have an effect on the balance of power between the two parties.
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2023-08-03 19:04:29
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