Protests have been going on in Iran for several days after the murder of a girl who wore the hijab incorrectly. Expert Note: Actions have flared up with renewed vigor, which may change the situation in the Middle East.
What happened in Iran
It is worth pointing out right away why Ukraine needs to look in the direction of Iran. The fact is that now this country is one of Russia’s main allies. Iranian drones are causing serious problems for the Ukrainian military and the statements of Iranian leaders, to put it mildly, give no reason for optimism. In a press conference parallel to the UN General Assembly, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi welcomed his country’s entry into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). According to him, this is a great economic opportunity not only for the country, but for the entire Middle East. Furthermore, Raisi said that unlike his predecessor Hassan Rouhani, he is not focused on cooperation with the West.
What happened in Iran? On September 13, 22-year-old Mahsa Amini was arrested by the Iranian deputy police on charges of “wearing the hijab incorrectly”. The girl was reportedly severely beaten during her arrest and then taken to the “Vozara” detention center. There, she Amini fell into a coma and died in hospital on September 16. Iranian authorities say the girl died of a heart attack, of natural causes. However, according to incoming reports, her death was the result of torture and ill-treatment.
Since September 16, in several Iranian cities, including the capital, thousands of people have protested against the acacias, whose participants demand that those responsible for Amini’s death be punished, as well as an end to violence against women and their discrimination. in particular, not to force Iranian women to wear hijabs. The strong dispersion of the shares led to the deaths of at least eight people, including a woman and a sixteen-year-old teenager. Dozens more were injured and injured.
Protesters seized mosques and state institutions, burned the portraits of Imam Khamini, Sergei Danilov, deputy director of the Center for Middle East Studies, told the media. This is the same serious offense as setting fire to portraits of Lenin and Stalin in the USSR.
“They have shown that the very essence of the Republic of Iran is unacceptable to them, and sooner or later these protests will end in victory. I don’t know if this time it is unlikely. Weak and vulnerable,” Danilov says.
With the onset of protests in Tehran and the Kurdish provinces of Iran, as well as in a number of other parts of the country, the internet has been turned off. This is the third major internet outage in Iran in the past 12 months.
Iranian leaders accused the protests of some sort of foreign interference, without specifying the names of the countries, and of the opposition from abroad, which allegedly used Amini’s death to foment public unrest.
Experts say similar rhetoric is used by the leaders of many authoritarian countries. The vulnerability of Iran’s Ayatollah regime, they said, could lead the country to work more closely with other dictatorial regimes, such as Russia, to help them quell mass protests.
Revolution – to be? …
The next few days of protests in Iran could be decisive, a revolutionary situation could arise in the country, said Igor Semivolos, director of the Center for Middle East Studies.
“What we are seeing in Iran indicates the growth of protests: there are still a few days left, which could be decisive. Now there may be circumstances in which the army could be neutral or confused,” the expert told Espresso.
In his view, only the military can suppress protests with excessive violence.
“The problem is that the President of Iran is now in the United States and cannot promptly intervene on the situation. The Supreme Leader, according to some information, is close to death or incapacitated. These circumstances can lead to a very serious destabilization of the situation in the same. Iran, “said Semivolos.
According to the expert, the country also has national problems. Therefore, there are demonstrations calling for autonomy in northern Iran (Iranian Azerbaijan). There is also a massive increase in protests in Kurdistan, a growing discontent that has been going on for a long time in western Iran, where the Arabs live.
“In other words, a revolutionary situation could arise in Iran,” he concluded.
However, political scientist and orientalist Nikolai Kozhanov is not so optimistic in his predictions. He recalled that Iran is one of the most closed countries to information in the world. The new social explosion is caused more by the cruelty of the conservative regime and its inability to solve economic problems than anything else, the expert is certain. Moreover, all the anger of the people in the square has so far been directed precisely against President Ibrahim Raisi, who, however, is not opposed to the very idea of an Islamic republic.
“Western sanctions and the regime’s inability to resolve issues related to the country’s economic development have brought the system into a state of slow crisis of protest, when, in fact, popular uprisings arise here and there for whatever reason. But they are not yet ready to turn into a revolution qualitatively. The dissatisfied in Iran do not have a single center of reference, not a single idea that unites people. They go out mainly to protest about something that concerns them personally, due to some kind of personal pain “, Kozhanov believes.
Russia, Iran and Ukraine
Finally, it is worth talking about the issue of the war in Ukraine, in which Iran has clearly taken the side of the aggressor. According to Nikolai Kozhanov, for Tehran, the war in Ukraine and Putin’s invasion marked the moment of the collapse of the old world, of the entire old system of foreign policy relations.
“The Iranian leadership believes that a new world system is now being built with new alliances and perceives Moscow exclusively as a tool that can allow Iran to enter these alliances. If first Iran could abandon the” nuclear deal “only provoking Russia’s displeasure, Russia will now say that “the West has put the Iranians in a corner” and therefore “only the West is responsible for the fact that this agreement did not take place.” negotiations in Vienna. Russia – “well, we will support the Iranians in any development of events” – just makes Tehran’s game, “he says.
Indeed, Iran is now replacing Russia in Syria, noted Igor Semivolos. However, aside from the supply of drones, the Kremlin can hardly expect any more help from Tehran.
In turn, military expert Oleg Zhdanov notes that Russia can also have major problems with drones from Iran.
“Starting today, the supply of drones will most likely run out. Firstly, because there are not so many of them. According to Israeli military experts, there cannot be a mass production of hundreds of pieces … Secondly, very serious protests are gripped by Iran, “said Zhdanov.
Valeria Shipulya
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