Iran Launches Cross-Border Missile Attacks on Neighbors, Raising Regional Tensions
In a series of rapid attacks this week, Iran launched missiles into neighboring countries, further escalating tensions in an already volatile region. The first attacks took place in Syria, targeting alleged ISIS targets. In Iraq, Tehran claimed to have hit a Mossad facility in Erbil. At least four people were killed in these attacks. The following day, Iran fired missiles into Pakistan’s Balochistan province, targeting the separatist group Jaish al-Adl. Unfortunately, two children were killed in the process. In response, Pakistan launched retaliatory attacks, resulting in the deaths of at least nine people in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province.
These cross-border strikes by Iran have raised concerns about a potential regional escalation and have prompted questions about the timing of these attacks in relation to Israel’s ongoing conflict with Gaza. While the targets of the Iranian attacks may seem unrelated on the surface, analysts suggest that there is a common thread tying Tehran’s actions together.
According to Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at SWP Berlin, Iran’s decision to launch these cross-border strikes stems from its rising threat perception in the region and the need to respond to domestic and external pressure. Recent incidents, such as the killing of a top Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander in Syria by Israel and the deadly bombing at the memorial of Iran’s late IRGC chief Qassem Soleimani, have projected an image of Iran’s intelligence weakness and lack of seriousness. By launching these attacks, Iran aims to show strength and credibility.
However, analysts caution against conflating events along the Pakistan border with the situation in Gaza. Despite occasional tensions and accusations between Pakistan and Iran regarding armed groups crossing their borders, the two countries have maintained military and diplomatic ties for years. On the same day as the Iranian attack on Pakistan, the two nations were conducting joint naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. This, coupled with anonymous Telegram messages suggesting prearranged and coordinated strikes between Iran and Pakistan, indicates that the situation may be more complex than it appears.
While the attack on a nuclear power like Pakistan sends a clear message to the United States and its allies, particularly Israel, it is also intended for internal consumption. Iran’s credibility and prestige have been waning, even among its own supporters, and preserving what remains of its support has become imperative. The attacks serve as a demonstration of strength to bolster domestic support.
Although the likelihood of these strikes leading to a larger regional conflict may be limited, it is not entirely impossible. So far, neither Iran nor Pakistan has engaged in further military action against each other. However, by targeting a nuclear power, Iran has sent a message that reverberates beyond Balochistan.
China, the most important ally of both Iran and Pakistan, has offered to mediate, and platforms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization provide opportunities for diplomatic engagement between the two nations. While the situation remains tense, it is hoped that the escalation will remain limited and constrained.
In conclusion, Iran’s recent cross-border missile attacks on its neighbors have heightened regional tensions. The motives behind these attacks are multifaceted, ranging from a desire to respond to external pressure to a need to bolster domestic support. While the immediate risk of a larger conflict may be low, the situation remains volatile, and the repercussions of these attacks will be felt beyond the borders of the targeted countries.