“Blurred landscape” the future of the Iran-Israel confrontation with fears of a new flare-up
The vicious cycle of terror and retaliation between Iran and Israel is fueling fears of a regional war in the Middle East with incalculable consequences. The foggy landscape surrounding Iran-Israel relations is raising fears of what’s to come, as the unwritten rules have changed in the decades-long “shadow war” between the two countries. At the same time the carnage in the Gaza Strip continues and the region sinks more and more into the humanitarian crisis, while concerns about an Israeli invasion of Rafah flare up.
After a tumultuous week, Israel finally responded to the “rain” of missiles and drones that Iran launched against it last weekend (recall that it all started after the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, attributed to Israel, in which seven members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, IRGC, were killed). The target of the new Israeli strike was Isfahan, a historic city 350 kilometers south of Tehran, which is home to a number of important military installations, including nuclear ones. The former director of the Mossad, Zohar Palti, had left open the possibility that Iran’s nuclear facilities would be targeted by Israel.
Although the event has not been officially confirmed, both Israeli and US officials have claimed anonymously that Israel did indeed launch the attack, hitting the Isfahan air base. Tehran however did not comment, with the country’s president Ebrahim Raisi giving a speech without making any reference to the incident. In fact, the Iranian news agency Tasnim reported, citing “well-informed sources”, that there is “no information about an attack from abroad, after the explosions heard in Iran”.
Rafa is the target
Israel’s small-scale response could be taken as a sign that no further escalation will occur. However, nothing can be ruled out. One theory, however, is that Benjamin Netanyahu has put harsh retaliation against Iran on ice, putting the burden on the long-announced military operation in Rafah, south of the Palestinian enclave in Gaza. Thus, the more a harsh response in Tehran seems to be moving away, the closer the scenario of an invasion of Rafah, where hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians have sought refuge, appears.
In this impasse, the US was quick to show it was distancing itself from Israel’s actions, telling G7 ministers at the summit in Capri, Italy, that they had received a last-minute warning about the attack on Iran and there had been no US jam. The ministers’ communiqué warned of new sanctions against Iran and called on both sides to avoid escalation.
Warrant against Netanyahu?
Meanwhile, at the same time as the open front in Gaza and the ping pong of retaliation between Iran and Israel, information from the Israeli television channel Channel 12 said that the country’s officials fear that the Hague Criminal Court and the competent prosecutor Karim Khan will issue arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and other Israeli officials for violations of international law in Gaza, where the death toll has risen to more than 34,000 in six months.
Netanyahu himself asked the foreign ministers of Britain David Cameron and Germany’s Analena Burbock, during their recent visit to Israel, to intervene to prevent the issuance of arrest warrants. In fact, the office of the Israeli prime minister held an emergency meeting to discuss this issue.
With a small-scale attack in Isfahan, Tel Aviv responded to Iranian drones and now turns its attention to the military operation in Rafah
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