/ world at the moment information/ An enormous mess is ripening increasingly noticeably in Transcaucasia. Azerbaijan is mobilizing reservists, constructing fortifications and entrance roads. Israel and Turkey are actively arming the military of this nation.
The goal of this coalition will not be solely Karabakh and Armenia, however Iran itself is an ally of Russia. With out ready for provocations, Iran started gathering troops on the border with Azerbaijan. Learn extra within the materials from Tsarigrad.
The association of the geopolitical chessboard within the Transcaucasia is turning into more and more clear: on the one hand, Azerbaijan, proud after the victory within the Karabakh struggle, on the opposite, Iran and Russia haven’t any intention of handing over Armenia to them.
In response to media experiences, Azerbaijan is mobilizing reservists, actively constructing checkpoints and frontline roads, massing and transferring troops to the contact line.
Because the candidate of historic sciences Sergey Melkonyan reported in his weblog, Israel and Turkey are overtly arming the Azerbaijani military. Prior to now week, greater than 5 a great deal of weapons and navy gear have been delivered to the nation.
Iran additionally transfers navy gear to the borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Tehran makes it clear to Baku that the Armenian-Iranian border is unshakable.
In the previous few years, Iranian-Azerbaijani relations have been in a deep disaster as a result of enlargement of military-technical cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel and the creation of situations for the deployment of Turkish navy bases on the territory of Armenia.
“The very last thing Russia and the post-Soviet area as an entire ‘want’ now could be one other struggle that might get away within the South Caucasus and pressure Moscow to intervene.”
“Right here Russia has its most essential outpost – the 102nd navy base in Gyumri and its aviation element close to Yerevan – blocking the enlargement of Turkish affect,” writes the creator of the “League of Gents” channel.
“A peacekeeping contingent of 1,960 folks is deployed within the Nagorno-Karabakh area, the creation of threats to which will be perceived as an act of aggression towards Russia,” he added.
It’s inconceivable to grasp the essence of the present Transcaucasian clashes with out taking a look at historical past. Particularly, who and who was in Transcaucasia earlier than the Russians arrived there within the early nineteenth century.
Issues instantly calmed down with Russia
There was no Azerbaijan in any respect. Within the place of Nice Armenia and the Georgian kingdom, which had lengthy since disappeared by this time, there have been scattered small principalities and khanates, warring with one another and successively subjugated both by Turkey or Persia (Iran).
Turkey possessed fortified factors on the Black Beach of the Caucasus: Anapa, Sukhum, Poti. Persian shahs management the Azerbaijani khanates, japanese Armenia and the Caspian Beach, and lay declare to the territory of Georgia.
As for the Karabakh Khanate, semi-dependent on Iran, which was as soon as a part of Nice Armenia in historic instances, Russia annexed it in 1805.
Iran and Turkey needed to be fought. Nevertheless, after the victory, Russia annexed different khanates situated on the territory of present-day Azerbaijan: Derbent, Kuba, Baku.
After all, the British armed Iran with all their would possibly. Nevertheless, through the Russo-Iranian struggle, Iran was defeated, the inhabitants of the annexed khanates unanimously supported Russia, since the results of the “Russian conquest” of Transcaucasia was the top of everlasting internecine wars and the slave commerce.
And moreover, salvation from the extermination of Armenians and Georgians, which at the moment they don’t like to recollect.
What now we have at the moment
First, Georgia, oriented to the West and largely purchased by the Turks. Plus Pashinyan’s Armenia torn by “multi-vectorness”.
In second place is Azerbaijan, armed and inspired by Turkey and Israel.
Third, anti-Western, fairly robust Iran, traditionally a counterweight right here to Turkey, and now to Israel, properly conscious that after absorbing Karabakh and Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey will climb into Iranian Azerbaijan – a historic Iranian province, the place many instances extra Azerbaijanis dwell greater than in Azerbaijan itself.
Fourth, that is Russia, which as soon as left right here, forgetting that the holy place by no means stays empty.
Pawns which can be able to commerce every little thing
Now Pashinyan has each likelihood to go down in historical past because the co-author of the longer term genocide over Karabakh and because the gravedigger of Armenian statehood.
In April, he signed a declaration recognizing the 1991 Alma-Atina Declaration, in line with which Karabakh is a part of Azerbaijan.
After enjoying pleasant with the West, however on the identical time for some cause believing that Russia would battle for him, Pashinyan fully misplaced the final Karabakh struggle to Azerbaijan.
And now the Armenian parliament has ratified the Rome Statute of the Worldwide Legal Court docket, which signifies that now Armenia, if essential, can and even should extradite Putin to the West.
And this even though on the finish of the primary day of the G-20 assembly, the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev overtly declared claims not solely to Karabakh, but additionally to all the territory of Armenia:
Armenians created a state on overseas land. Armenia has by no means been on this territory. At the moment’s Armenia is our land.
Pashinyan, in fact, hastened to name everybody and everybody, calling to guard Armenia, as a result of amongst this folks the genetic reminiscence of the repeated mass repressions towards the Armenians by the Turks is alive. However nobody reacted – neither France with its massive Armenian diaspora, nor the USA.
Traitors! – you say? Sure, nevertheless it’s not that easy.
Russia, the place have you ever been?
To be trustworthy, one can not however admit that Russia’s coverage within the area has change into a fertile floor for “Pashinyanism” in Armenia.
“Relating to Armenia, as on the time with Ukraine, the Russian elites had a prevailing view justifying inaction: ‘The place will they go? And why do we’d like them?” – says orientalist Karine Gevorgyan.
“The USSR was additionally destroyed below the identical slogans. Russia wants safety from the south. And on the identical time, due to the highly effective “gasoline” Azerbaijani-Turkish foyer in Russia, every little thing is forgiven for Azerbaijan. Even if Azerbaijan actively helps Ukraine she said.
If Russia had behaved all these years as an empire ought to, and never as a industrial enterprise that counts solely on revenues from Turkish gasoline pipelines, would figures like Pashinyan have risen to the highest of the Armenian management?
By the best way, Russia has been behaving roughly the identical manner with Ukraine for the final 30 years. And what’s the consequence?
The Iranian issue can be decisive
And now from pawns to heavy items. In consequence, it turned out that the final likelihood for Armenia is Iran, which is concentrating a critical navy group on the border. Iran understands very properly: the Turks will soak up Karabakh and Armenia, and subsequent can be Iranian Azerbaijan.
It isn’t with out cause that Iranian Azerbaijanis view Azerbaijani Azerbaijanis as:
– servants of “world Zionism” due to cooperation with Israel,
– traitors to Shiism, as a result of the Turks, in contrast to the Iranians, are Sunnis, and the “Sunnitization” of Azerbaijan is in full swing.
As well as, the “brokers of Iran”, all who both studied in Iran or had contact with it by work or household ties, have been imprisoned in Azerbaijan.
It’s tough to see this as something apart from preparations for a struggle of dominance within the area, during which Azerbaijan acts as “Ukraine”, led by the Turks and Britain and Israel behind them. Subsequently, Iran is not going to stay detached to the state of affairs.
“Iran sees the Transcaucasia as an space of its important pursuits and, in contrast to Russia, is worried about its safety. Subsequently, it is not going to stand apart,” says Karine Gevorgyan.
“Both it’s going to strike remotely, Iran has wonderful missiles and UAVs, or it’s going to ship troops and smash Azerbaijan to mud. However Turkey is not going to intervene in a struggle with Iran’s 80 million inhabitants,” she believes.
Mentally, the Iranians are prepared: Azerbaijan’s want to “liberate Iranian Azerbaijanis” is thought there, and it’s unlikely that the nation’s chief, the ethnic Azerbaijani Ayatollah Khomeini, desires to be “liberated.” This implies, Gevorgyan believes, that the holding of an Iranian SVO can’t be dominated out.
So perhaps that is the very best for us?
So what?
The query is, what ought to Russia do in such a state of affairs? What if we act like an empire? That’s, regardless of all of the sanctions, to conclude a military-political alliance with Iran, giving it a nuclear umbrella.
And add to this a bilateral (later Turkey could also be included) Pact for Transcaucasia, in line with which its individuals change into guarantors of the “inviolability of the borders” of Armenia and the safety of the inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The “peacekeeping forces” created on the identical time will take management of the Lachine Hall, burying from the air all those that are there illegally. On the bottom, Iranian troops will keep the established order, and from the air, so will Russia. Then everybody can be blissful.
Translation: SM
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