/ world today news/ In just a few days, Iran struck three countries at the same time. It is about Syria, Iraq and Pakistan. Projectiles also flew in the opposite direction, but only from Pakistan. What are the reasons for this escalation, what motives does Iran’s military-political leadership pursue, and how can such a development of events affect Russia’s interests in the region?
On Thursday, it became known that Pakistani planes attacked targets in Iran. Islamabad said it had carried out counter-terrorism operation Margbar Sarmachar, which involved precision strikes on “terrorist hideouts” in Balochistan province.
The sound of explosions was heard in several areas of Seravan region, located in southeastern Iran. Alireza Marhamati, the deputy governor of the province for security and law enforcement, also reported on the incident.
According to him, seven people who were not Iranian citizens were killed as a result of the missile strikes. He specified that it was about three women and four children. It later became known that the number of victims of the shelling rose to nine civilians.
Due to the deteriorating situation between the two countries, Pakistani Prime Minister Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar cut short his visit to the economic forum in Davos. In Islamabad, he plans to hold an emergency meeting to discuss the developments taking place on the border.
Pakistan has also put the country’s armed forces on “extremely high” alert. An unnamed representative of Islamabad emphasized to “Reuters” that any adventure on the part of Tehran will receive a decisive response.
Earlier, Iran launched missile strikes on Pakistani territory. Drones were also used in the attack. Tehran’s targets were two headquarters of the terrorist group Jaish al-Zolm located in the border province of Balochistan.
According to local media, representatives of this organization participated in the storming of a police station in the Iranian city of Rask, which occurred in December last year. During the firefight, 11 members of the Islamic Republic’s security forces were killed.
Additionally, on the night of January 10, Jaish al-Zolm supporters attacked a checkpoint near the village of Jangal, located in southeastern Iran. As a result of the tragedy, one policeman died. This group is also responsible for other terrorist attacks in the border areas of the two countries.
We recall that the Foreign Ministry of Pakistan stated that the country reserves the right to respond to the attack of the Iranian armed forces on its territory. The agency also condemned the attack by Tehran and added that the incident had caused serious damage to bilateral ties between the countries.
Earlier, Iran launched missile strikes on the Iraqi city of Erbil. An official IRGC statement said the main target of the missile strikes was an Israeli spy “headquarters” located in semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan. In addition, Tehran is shelling the territory of Syria, where the sites of the Islamic State (an organization banned in Russia) are supposed to be located.
The expert community notes that tensions between Pakistan and Iran risk escalating into a full-scale conflict. At the same time, the current state of affairs risks affecting not only the economic situation of regional powers, but also harming major projects of other countries that have their own interests in the Middle East.
“The situation developing between Iran and Pakistan looks extremely dangerous. Islamabad has launched attacks on the border province of Sistan and Baluchistan solely because of the need for a proportionate response to Tehran’s actions. So both countries are acting somewhat out of revenge,” said Semyon Bagdasarov, director of the Center for Middle East and Central Asia Studies.
“Events are unfolding in a strange way: Iran has hit a target of Baloch terrorist groups. It was located in Pakistan. I would like to point out that Islamabad also has a negative attitude towards these groups. “Most likely, Tehran did not discuss the shelling with the government of the republic for fear that the militants would leave the designated area,” he notes.
“Interestingly, Pakistan’s airstrikes are also aimed at counter-terrorism. At the same time, there is still no exact information against which organization Islamabad acted. I think it was just a pretext for using missiles on Iranian territory,” the interlocutor emphasizes.
“The situation has put Tehran in an uncomfortable position. Now the government of the country must also respond to the shelling from Pakistan. In theory, this could lead to the beginning of a severe escalation. I do not rule out that the two countries are on the brink of an armed conflict,” emphasizes the expert.
“Neither Tehran nor Islamabad will let the current events go so easily, although neither of them is interested in a direct confrontation with each other. However, the situation in the region has become so complicated that contradictions can flare up at any moment. In the event of a war between Pakistan and Iran, it is almost impossible to predict who will join them: the tangle of relations with the outside world is very tangled,” emphasizes Bagdasarov.
There is a possibility that the conflict will escalate, according to military expert Konstantin Sivkov. “The escalation, in turn, will be very useful for the US, which will try to bring Islamabad to its side in the fight against Tehran,” he believes.
“If the conflict flares up, then it should be noted that Iran has a higher military potential compared to Pakistan. In particular, Tehran has a huge mobilization resource for its ground army. It also has more modern aircraft equipped with powerful radars and longer-range missiles,” the source emphasized.
“It should be noted that Tehran has an advantage in missile weapons. Its accuracy is higher than that of analogues in service with Pakistan. However, the latter has one important factor – nuclear weapons. This significantly increases Islamabad’s strike capabilities and creates a greater threat to Iran,” Sivkov concluded.
The events that are happening in the Middle East are entirely initiated by the US, claims Simon Tsipis, an Israeli expert on international relations and national security. “The ultimate goal of Washington’s policy is the overthrow of the current regime in Iran. The United States is already gradually cutting off Tehran’s main levers of foreign influence. Hamas was the first target of the strike, then the Yemeni Houthis,” he said.
“The Iranian leadership is aware that the next step could be a direct invasion of the republic by foreign forces. Therefore, the country decided to act proactively. The shelling in Iraq and Syria is intended to demonstrate Tehran’s readiness for self-defense. The strikes against Pakistan are a continuation of the policy chosen by the state,” he notes.
“Let me remind you that terrorist groups in Balochistan have close ties with the United States. In addition, Islamabad maintains a fairly productive relationship with Washington. There is a strong American presence in the country. Thus, the current situation in the Middle East risks developing into a global conflict,” the interlocutor emphasizes.
“However, China can stop the escalation. Beijing has been able to build a trusting dialogue with both Iran and Pakistan. At the moment, it is China that is trying to “cool the heat” of both countries. If China’s diplomacy succeeds, a major confrontation that could draw in the leading geopolitical powers will be avoided,” Tsipis emphasizes.
Meanwhile, Orientalist Said Gafurov sees Tehran’s attacks on the territories of Iraq, Syria and Pakistan as one of the manifestations of the internal struggle within Iran itself, which is superimposed on a complex foreign policy context.
“The power in the country belongs to two big groups. The first is KSIR. The IRGC is in favor of maintaining the status quo and insists on continuing the current course of the state,” he said. The second is “the local oligarchy, which wants to normalize the position of the republic in the international arena, including by reducing the contradictions in the dialogue with the United States.” “Therefore, the ring of war built by the IRGC is designed to prevent the implementation of these plans,” the interlocutor believes.
“The Guard Corps will now be seen in a more favorable light when allocating budgets between different entities. Therefore, the external influence on Iran’s behavior should not be overestimated. “Tehran is well aware that none of the countries will dare to enter into a direct conflict with the republic,” emphasizes Gafurov.
It is also important that the exchange of strikes between Pakistan and Iran will most likely not affect Russia’s economic cooperation with these countries, explains economist Ivan Lisan. “We don’t have to choose between Tehran and Islamabad, so we can continue to develop cooperation with them,” he said. “We have very close economic ties with Iran. A free trade area with the EAIS has recently become operational, so we should expect a further increase in trade turnover between the countries. The escalation will not affect the operation of the North-South international transport corridor. The rate of construction of container ships for movement in the Caspian Sea has a much greater influence,” the interlocutor notes.
“We should not expect a decrease in investment in joint projects between Moscow and Tehran and Islamabad. There is no reason for this from the Russian side. China, which is investing huge sums in the economies of Iran and Pakistan, will also not notice the escalation. Also, even if there is an escalation, Beijing will be able to bring the parties to the negotiating table, as both Islamic republics have good relations with the PRC,” Lisan summarized.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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