Haniyeh has been the political leader of Hamas since 2017, and is seen as the militant movement’s highest leader. Israel holds him responsible for the major attack on October 7, 2023. The Hamas leader was in Tehran for the swearing-in of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, along with other Hamas officials.
Yesterday, Hezbollah commander Shukr was also killed in an airstrike in Beirut. His death is claimed by the Israeli army. What does the death of these two major militant leaders mean for the development of the conflict in the Middle East?
Provocation
According to Erwin van Veen, conflict researcher at the Clingendael Institute, these events will not de-escalate the conflict. Israel denies being behind Haniyeh’s death, but Van Veen calls it “evident” that Israel is behind the attack. It is also a “big finger” to Tehran, says the conflict researcher, it shows that the Iranian security service was unable to prevent the attack. “That will prompt Tehran to use the necessary rhetoric, there is already crying for blood and promises of retaliation,” he adds.
Shadow War
Israel and Iran are arch enemies and have been waging a shadow war for years. Iran supports Hamas and Hezbollah, with the attack on Haniyeh on Iranian soil Iran is involved in the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
The attack on Haniyeh was very direct, and that breaks with the shadow war that has been waged up until now. But whether the soup will be eaten as hot as Iran is now shouting, that remains to be seen. “Iran itself does not benefit from a regional conflict with a high intensity,” says Erwin van Veen. But it is likely that there will be an action of revenge, for example an action that focuses on symbolically relevant targets. “A military installation is then plausible, which is not too destructive. Then they have saved their honor,” Van Veen gives as an example.
Enough successors
Haniyeh was mainly the face of Hamas on the international diplomatic level. There are enough successors ready to replace Haniyeh, according to Erwin van Veen: “In the short term, the loss of someone with an enormous track record, and therefore additional network and knowledge, is a big blow. At the same time, Hamas is a well-organized club with a talent ‘pipeline’ and a lot of internal discipline, such a person does not work alone and has advisors. So in the long term someone else will be ready, I do not expect it to affect them very much.” The negotiations between Israel and Hamas will probably be put on hold for a while, Haniyeh was involved in them.
