Iran and Pakistan Trade Missile Attacks in Escalating Ethnic Conflict
In a week marked by escalating violence in the Middle East, Iran and Pakistan engaged in a series of missile attacks against each other. While both countries have promised to de-escalate the situation, the attacks have raised concerns about the potential expansion of the conflict in the region. Although there is no direct link between Iran’s conflict with Pakistan and the wider conflicts in the Middle East, it is difficult to ignore the significance of these attacks, given Iran’s involvement in various ongoing conflicts.
Iran plays a role in multiple conflicts in the Middle East. The country has ties to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, both of which are engaged in fighting against Israel. Iran has also supported the Houthis in Yemen and smaller militia groups in Iraq and Syria that are attacking US anti-ISIS coalition positions. This week’s exchange between Iran and Pakistan is primarily driven by each country’s internal politics rather than Israel’s war in Gaza. It is a continuation of a long-standing struggle against an ethnic insurgency that has troubled both nations for decades.
The recent missile attacks between Iran and Pakistan were part of a larger conflict involving ethnic separatist groups. Pakistan carried out coordinated and targeted military strikes against Baloch separatists in Saravan, a city in Iran’s southeast. These strikes were in retaliation for an Iranian attack on the anti-Iranian Baloch militant group Jaish al-Adl in Pakistani territory. The Baloch separatist groups targeted by both countries have been involved in violent campaigns to secure autonomy and improved rights for the Baloch minority.
The Baloch people are a Sunni Muslim ethnic minority living in Balochistan, a region that spans parts of Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. The region is sparsely populated and underdeveloped, leading to protests and separatist movements among the Baloch population. Both Iran and Pakistan have oppressed their Baloch populations, contributing to the ongoing conflict. The Baloch separatist movements have been active in both countries, with collaboration between Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and Baloch militants.
The recent military strikes by Iran and Pakistan serve political purposes within their respective countries. In Pakistan, the strikes have united a politically polarized nation in anger and provided an opportunity for de-escalation. Iran’s attacks on various targets in Pakistan, Iraq, and Syria are a response to rising threat perceptions in the region and domestic and external pressures. It is also a message to its own people that Iran will not be bullied and that it has the military capabilities to defend itself.
While there is no direct link between Israel’s war in Gaza and Iran’s attacks on other countries, Iran may be using these attacks to display its military capabilities directly rather than relying on proxy groups. However, Iran carefully chose countries with which it has friendly ties to avoid significant escalation. Retaliation from Iran against Pakistan’s strikes is possible but risky, given Pakistan’s superior military strength and Iran’s stretched military and proxy forces.
The recent missile attacks between Iran and Pakistan highlight the complex dynamics of the conflicts in the Middle East. While the immediate focus is on the ethnic insurgency in Balochistan, the broader instability in the region raises concerns about further violence and potential expansion of the conflicts. Both Iran and Pakistan are dealing with internal challenges, including economic difficulties and political crises, which contribute to the tensions. As the situation unfolds, it remains to be seen how these conflicts will evolve and whether de-escalation efforts will be successful.