Iran and Hezbollah, between containment and open war after Israeli attacks

Since Israel planned and carried out the attack against Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital – for which, as is usually the case with such operations, it has not claimed responsibility – it knew that Iran would be forced to respond to this assassination of a guest who was attending an institutional event in Tehran and who was protected by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. The question now is how Iran will respond and, in turn, how Israel will react. In this equation, we must not forget the Shiite militia Hezbollah, which from Lebanon has also promised to avenge the death of its military commander in a bombing carried out and acknowledged by Israel against the Lebanese capital, Beirut.

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It has been almost a week since the attacks on two prominent leaders of Iran’s allies, key members of its “Axis of Resistance” against Israel and the United States. And from Tehran there have been threats, but no indication of what options are being considered by the political and military authorities, headed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard – in whose safe and isolated residence Haniyeh was staying when he was killed, allegedly with an explosive device planted in his room.

Israel is on alert awaiting that response, which US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said could come early this week, as he reportedly told his colleagues from the G7 countries in a phone call, the content of which has been leaked. the Axios medium. Officially, in that conversation, Blinken conveyed to his counterparts “the need for de-escalation in the Middle East,” according to a statement from his Department. According to the analyst specialized in Syria Charles Lister, pro-Iranian Iraqi militias have attacked a US base in what is the sixth attack in three weeks.

For its part, The Israeli newspaper Haaretz has reported on Monday that Western countries do not believe it is possible to deter Iran and a diplomat involved in recent negotiations with Iran and Hezbollah said there was “pessimism” among those trying to avoid retaliation. Several diplomats have told Haaretz anonymously that Iran is convinced it must respond because failure to do so would leave the door open for Israel to commit further assassinations and attacks on Iranian soil.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani said at a press conference on Monday that Iran is taking “serious measures to protect its national security with the aim of punishing the aggressor, creating deterrence and defending its security,” according to the official news agency IRNA. Kanani again blamed Israel for the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran early Wednesday morning and said that “it is the source of the escalation” of tension in the Middle East. He also said that Iran seeks stability in the region and that this can be established “by punishing the aggressor and creating deterrence against the adventurous actions of the usurping Zionist regime” of Israel.

When and how

For the moment, Tehran and its allies have chosen to keep the Israelis waiting, thereby increasing their sense of uncertainty and the pressure on their leaders, according to the interpretation of the Soufan Centeran independent research and analysis center based in New York. “Iran and its allies will likely prevent Israel from exploiting a confrontation at a time of its choosing,” the Soufan Center explains, and as long as they choose the right moment, they can continue to exert “sustained pressure” with their “strategy of attrition” on several fronts – including Yemen, from where Houthi rebels, another member of the “Axis of Resistance,” have launched direct attacks on Israeli soil.

Aside from when they will launch their counterattack, Iran and Hezbollah have to decide how it will be carried out. In Tehran’s case, the Soufan Center says its leaders want the attack to be larger than the one it launched last April in response to Israel’s bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, which killed several members of the Revolutionary Guard. Some experts suggest that Iran could carry out a coordinated cyberattack with missile and drone launches – like the more than 300 it launched in mid-April – the research and analysis center says.

In its first direct attack on Israel, Iran provided advance warning of the launch of the missiles, which were mostly intercepted, not only by Israeli air defenses but also with the intervention of the US and other allied countries. This prevented an escalation of the conflict in the spring, as the attack did not cause significant damage or fatalities, but it also did not provide the deterrence that Iran desired – as evidenced by Israel’s daring to carry out a targeted assassination in the heart of Tehran.

Iran will now have to find a way to demonstrate its military capabilities to the enemy (and not lose face in the eyes of other regional powers, such as Turkey or Saudi Arabia), while at the same time not provoking a more lethal response from Israel. In April, for example, Israel responded to Iranian bombardment with a limited strike near a nuclear facility in central Iran, which also caused no significant material or human damage.

According to the Soufan Center, Iran could coordinate with Hezbollah to disrupt Israel’s air defenses, which experts believe would fail in the face of a large number of missiles, rockets and drones launched from different directions. Although the Israeli army’s airstrikes against Hezbollah targets have damaged its military infrastructure in recent months, the Shiite group is believed to still have more than 150,000 projectiles of varying range and power.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant met with Air Force commanders on Monday and asked them to prepare for a counterattack: “Our enemies are carefully considering their steps thanks to the capabilities demonstrated by our pilots during the war, but we must prepare for all possibilities, including a quick switch to attack.”

Meanwhile, the Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Herzi Halevi, has received the commander of the US Army Central Command (CENTCOM), Michael Erik Kurilla, who has traveled to Israel after the US government reiterated its support for the Jewish state in the face of any threat coming from Iran or other common enemies (Hezbollah and Hamas are also considered terrorist groups by Washington). The military have made “a joint assessment of the situation on strategic and security issues, as well as joint preparations in the region, as part of the response to threats in the Middle East,” the IDF reported in a statement, which did not mention Iran or other sources of these threats.