Shipments of iPhones are expected to decline in 2024, according to top Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities. This decline is attributed to the rising popularity of foldable phones and Huawei’s resurgence in the Chinese market.
Apple, which became the top smartphone vendor in China last year, has reduced shipments of “key upstream semiconductor components” to around 200 million units. This translates to a 15% year-over-year drop in iPhone shipments. Kuo’s latest supply chain survey reveals that Apple’s weekly shipments in China have fallen by 30% to 40% compared to the previous year, and this downward trend is expected to continue.
Kuo predicts that Apple may experience the most significant decline among major global mobile phone brands in 2024. He attributes this decline to Huawei’s comeback as a leading smartphone maker and the increasing preference for foldable phones among high-end users in the Chinese market. Additionally, new phone designs integrating generative artificial intelligence are also impacting the market.
Samsung, on the other hand, has seen an increase in shipments of its new Galaxy S24 series by 5% to 10% due to higher-than-expected demand for its AI-powered features. Meanwhile, Apple has lowered its shipment forecast for the iPhone 15 in the first half of 2024.
Kuo notes that there are no major changes expected in the iPhone’s design until at least 2025. As a result, Apple’s shipment momentum and ecosystem growth are likely to diminish in the meantime.
Apple is set to report its quarterly results soon, with analysts projecting a revenue growth of just 0.6% from the previous year. Average projections indicate that Apple will record single-digit growth for the rest of the calendar year.
As news of the potential decline in iPhone shipments spreads, Apple shares have already seen a 1.7% decrease. The company has not yet responded to requests for comment on the matter.
In conclusion, the growing popularity of foldable phones and Huawei’s resurgence in the Chinese market are expected to impact iPhone shipments in 2024. With no major design changes expected until 2025, Apple’s shipment momentum and ecosystem growth may face challenges in the coming years.