Four major variables that will shake up the first US Republican primary ‘Iowa Caucus’ on the 15th
On the afternoon of the 13th (local time), two days left before the Iowa caucuses (party convention), the first Republican primary for the US presidential election (15th), downtown Des Moines, the capital, was engulfed by an arctic cold wave. The temperature was -16 degrees Celsius with snow piled up well over an adult’s knees, and the relentlessly blowing wind made it feel like -32 degrees Celsius. The downtown area, with only the occasional snowplow visible, was completely deserted, and the only sign of the event was the caucus banner. The temperature felt like -43.3 degrees that night, and the National Weather Service warned that it was “cold air that threatens life.” The evening of the caucuses is expected to record the lowest temperature in the 52-year history of the Iowa caucuses, which began in 1972. Iowa, with a population of about 3.2 million, has about 750,000 registered Republicans, and due to the extreme cold, the ability to mobilize voters on the day has increased rapidly. The Des Moines Register, a leading local media outlet, said, “It has become important for young supporters to organize services to transport older supporters in four-wheel drive vehicles.” ▲ Former U.S. President Donald Trump in Urbandale, Iowa, USA on the 13th (local time) A sign outside the president’s campaign headquarters is buried in snow. The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) issued a winter weather advisory on this day, including heavy rain, strong winds, heavy snow, and blizzards. Approximately 30 million people are under a winter storm warning, mainly in the Midwestern United States and the Great Lakes region. The Arctic air mass affecting North America is expected to remain in force until this weekend, bringing record-breaking cold. Urbandale Reuters Yonhap News The unprecedented cold and heavy snow that hit Iowa, the ‘presidential weathervane’, is emerging as a last-minute variable, and the actions and evaluations of the Republican primary candidates are also mixed. There has been speculation that former President Donald Trump (78), who has an overwhelming approval rating, will be adversely affected due to his large number of supporters in rural areas and older age groups. On the one hand, there is an analysis that it could actually be good news for Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (46), who are relying on their organizational skills and declaration of support for the governor, respectively.
Former President Trump, who canceled a campaign rally the previous day, also canceled a local rally this afternoon and instead held a video rally with Iowa Attorney General Brenna Byrd. Instead, he wrote on TruthSocial that he was “going to Iowa now,” and said at a video rally that he was worried about the weather, but added, “The news reported that Trump voters are much more dedicated and will come to vote even if they have to walk on glass.” Participation was encouraged.▲ Page 10 1 Severe cold and heavy snow… Where are the supporters?
The second-place candidates, who had postponed their campaign the previous day due to the harsh cold, began to secure last-minute votes today, focusing on the outskirts of the state. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (52) held two campaign rallies that day. At a party member event held in Cedar Falls in the morning, he said, “Monday (15th) is going to be really cold,” and “What I want to ask you to do is not only go to the polls, but also take the time to take people with you.” At the same time, he emphasized, “You may have to wait in line, so please dress in layers and bring your ID,” and added, “At this moment, you are making history.”
Governor DeSantis, who postponed four events the day before, devoted his efforts to Iowa enough to visit all 99 counties in the state. On this day, after the Council Bluff campaign, he appealed for courage to attend the caucus despite the bad weather, saying, “I will change this country.” He said, “Donald Trump is probably on the phone,” and “He is probably relaxing at Mar-a-Lago (resort). “The temperature there will be 24 degrees Celsius.”
It is difficult to predict what the voter turnout will be due to the extreme cold and heavy snow. Republican strategists predict that higher voter turnout will favor Trump. If the number of voters is less than 160,000, it means that Trump’s approval rating will decline, and if it exceeds 170,500, it is expected to be in his favor.
2 Will Trump get a majority of the votes?
Trump’s side needs to win more than 50% of the votes this time to dominate the early stages and at the same time put to rest the theory of a new person and the justification for pursuing him. Haley and DeSantis are said to be aiming for a vote margin difference in the 20-25% range.
In the last opinion poll (Des Moines Register, NBC) released this evening, Trump reaffirmed his lead with 48% support, but unlike previous opinion polls, it fell below 50%. Former Ambassador Haley followed with 20% and Governor DeSantis with 16%.
3 The direction of evangelical votes is
What the American media is paying attention to in the Iowa caucuses is the direction of evangelical Protestants, the core supporters of the Republican Party. The New York Times (NYT) and other sources reported that they account for 25% of Iowa’s population and have unified their support for each presidential election, including former President Ronald Reagan. However, in this year’s presidential election, the candidates supported are divided between Trump and DeSantis. DeSantis’ approval rating in the conservative northwest, where evangelicals such as Sue, Lyon, and Polymers are concentrated, is expected to have a significant impact on the future primary election.
4 Where will the ‘Redneck’ faction head?
In addition, it is important to reaffirm Trump’s ‘redneck’ support group. Rednecks, which refer to the low-educated and low-income white working class living in the suburbs, were in areas where the Democratic Party dominated such as Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, but Trump was able to win the election due to the support of rednecks in the upper Mississippi Valley. On the other hand, the key question is how many votes Haley, who is relatively popular among white, highly educated and high-income groups, will win not only in urban counties but also in rural counties.
The Iowa caucuses will be held in 99 counties and 1,670 districts starting at 7 p.m. (Central time) on the 17th. Unlike a primary, a caucus is a closed system in which only party members vote, and 40 of the 2,429 elected Republican delegates are allocated to Iowa.
Des Moines (Iowa) Correspondent Jaeyeon Lee
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2024-01-14 11:22:28
