Investors are waiting for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to later announce its December interest rate decision and see whether recent data showing declining inflation is enough for the Fed to go dovish. US stock indexes edged up slightly after Wednesday’s flat opening (14th).
before the deadline,Dow Jones Industrial Averageup nearly 100 points or 0.3%,NasdaqThe composite index rose nearly 0.2%,S&P 500 indexup nearly 0.3%,Semiconductor PhiladelphiaThe index rose nearly 0.3%.
Although November’s US consumer price index (CPI) report showed that inflation continued to fall, leading to a full rebound in US stock and bond markets, the market warned that the Fed could continue to increase interest rates, which moderated gains.
After news that the Fed may announce a 2-yard (50 basis point) hike in interest rates later was fully priced by the market, traders are still uneasy about when policy makers will signal a pause in rate hikes and whether they could cut interest rates next year.
Traders are currently betting that after hiking interest rates 2 yards this week, the Fed could raise interest rates again 2 yards at its meeting in late January next year, then cut interest rates from the same scale by the end of next year.
The Fed will announce its December interest rate decision at 3:00 a.m. Taiwan time on Thursday (15), along with the latest Quarterly Economic Monthly Summary (SEP) and interest rate forecast dot plot. Half an hour later a press conference will be held. Attention needs to be paid to the Fed’s attitude towards next year’s monetary policy path, particularly whether it will influence market expectations for a rate cut in the second half of next year.
In other news, the UK’s National Bureau of Statistics released data on Wednesday showing UK inflation fell from a high of 41. CPI rose 10.7% in November, slightly below expectations of the market and increased by 10.9%. It rose 11.1% last month, was expected to rise 0.4% and was expected to rise 0.6%, easing pressure on the Bank of England to continue raising interest rates amid of the economic recession.
In addition, some media reports have pointed out that the European Central Bank (ECB) expects the inflation rate to remain above its 2% target over the next three years, which is higher than current market expectations, indicating that the ECB’s war against high prices are far from over. It was reported that the European Central Bank will inevitably raise interest rates for the fourth consecutive time on Thursday (15th) to curb inflation, also announce a new quarterly economic forecast, and also draft a quantitative tightening plan (QT).
In terms of energy, the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday raised its forecast for global crude demand for this year and the next two years, as the unexpected economic resilience of major Asian economies boosted the Oil Demand and Russian Oil Affects Supply Under Sanctions, IEA Forecasts Oil prices could rebound next year. Before the deadline, international oil prices both increased by almost 2%.
Starting at 22:00 on Wednesday (14th) Taipei time:
Focus on actions:
Tesla (ATS-US) fell 0.64% in early trading to $159.92 per share
Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs cut Tesla’s price target from $305 to $235 per share due to weak demand. Tesla shares are down about 40% since the end of September and yesterday their market value fell below $500 billion.
Best Buy (BBY-US) fell 2.39% in early trading to $82.06 a share
Shares of electronics retailer Best Buy fell 3% in premarket trading after BofA downgraded the stock to underperforming from neutral, citing gains. The environment in which Lee grows up is fraught with challenges.
amazon (AMZN-USA) rose 0.7% to $93.14 a share in early trading
amazon (AMZN-USA) is facing a $280 million lawsuit from Gilimex, a Vietnamese manufacturer of storage systems. The latter accused Amazon of suddenly cutting orders after growth in online shopping slowed this year, putting pressure on manufacturers for overcapacity and raw materials.
Today’s key economic data:
- November US Import Price Index Monthly Rate was -0.6%, -0.5% expected and prior to -0.4%
- November US Export Price Index Monthly Rate was -0.3%, -0.4% expected and prior to -0.4%
Wall Street Analysis:
JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief strategist Michael Wilson warned clients to be more aware of earnings risks because expectations are “too high,” reiterating that next year’s earnings will be well below consensus expectations. He believes the market is now pricing in a disconnect to the earnings recession she expects, and there are some “similarities” to the 2008 US stock market crash.
Citigroup’s US equity strategist Scott Chronert’s recent research report will be released later this year.S&P 500 indexThe index target was raised from 3,900 to 4,000, meaning that compared to its current level, US stock performance could be lackluster over the period. He also said yesS&P 500 indexHowever, it is too early to state all clearly and the earnings recovery, economic deceleration and continued hawkish comments from the Fed could trigger another decline in equities and eventuallyS&P 500 indexit will weaken.
