Investment Compass updates the investment situation. March 2023

March 9, 2023

Outlook

Rebound after rate repricing: Investors are adjusting their expectations for an interest rate increase by adjusting the terminal rate to 5.5% and maintaining interest rates at this level throughout the year instead of cutting interest rates at the end of the year. However, we think this is starting to be a reasonable level on the assumption that inflation will not accelerate again. Keep track of the numbers, the Fed’s stance and the outcome of the Fed meeting, which will relate to interest rate expectations. If it comes out not too different from what the market expects We expect the stock market to rebound again this month.

Strategy

• It’s Time to Buy Bonds: Interest levels in the fixed income group are currently significantly higher than last year and are in the highest zone in the last 10 years.
• Back to Asia: Asian stocks continued to decline over the past month as the Dollar Index returned to strength. However, we expect capital flows to flow back into regional markets once again as the Dollar Index starts to slow down. Together with the better-than-expected growth in the Chinese economic indicators and the two sessions of the Chinese parliament that are expected to issue more measures to support public consumption, support positive sentiment on investment.

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