© Reuters 5 major events in the financial market this week: US non-agricultural heavy hits US stocks to start the second quarter journey
Investing.com – The focus this week is on the all-important U.S. monthly jobs report, U.S. stocks heading into the second quarter, OPEC+ slashing output, and Australia and New Zealand central bank rate decisions.
1.U.S.NofarmingAt onceKarmatellComing, wage growth is expected to hit a new low
Investors need to pay close attention to the non-agricultural employment report released this Friday (7th) to understand the latest situation of the health of the labor market. In the past year, although the Federal Reserve has continued to raise interest rates, the labor market has been strong.
Economists expect the U.S. economy to add another 310,000 jobs in March after adding 311,000 in February. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise year-over-year, the slowest pace since July 2021.
Employment data is an important reference factor for the Fed and can help investors. If job growth exceeds 200,000, it may strengthen expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike.
Fed officials said they expect interest rates to remain around current levels for the rest of the year to keep inflation in check.
2.manybeautifulthe fedofficials will publishthe speech，The release of the ISM Purchasing Managers Index is imminent
Before the release of the March non-farm payrolls report on Friday, the United States will announce February on Tuesday (4th) and March on Wednesday (5th).
and will be announced on Monday and Wednesday, respectively.
Several Fed policymakers are also due to speak this week, including Cleveland Fed President, St. Louis Fed President and Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
Fed officials expect interest rates to remain around current levels for the rest of the year to help bring inflation back toward the bank’s 2 percent target. However, while inflationary pressures remain high, the Fed also needs to weigh the recent turmoil in the banking sector and maintain financial stability.
3. US stocks enter the second quarter
Although the collapse of two regional banks sparked fears of a financial crisis and dragged bank stocks down sharply, US stocks still closed solidly in the first quarter.
The index rose 16.8%, its biggest quarterly percentage gain so far in 2020. It rose 7%, rebounding from a nearly 20% drop in 2022 and a 0.4% rise in the first quarter.
Cautious investors, however, believe that rising stocks are more vulnerable to a recession that could be brought closer by turmoil in the banking sector.
How much recession risk is priced into U.S. stocks and whether a recession will actually occur has been a bone of contention on Wall Street.
“The answer is yes, the market simply isn’t pricing in a recession,” said Hans Olsen, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust. “For stocks, that means we could have some really bad surprises in the coming quarters.” is protecting against future market turmoil by holding higher-than-normal amounts of cash.
4.OPEC+ unexpectedly announced production cuts, and the price center rose
After oil prices fell to 15-month lows, OPEC+ unexpectedly surged after the group was widely expected to keep its previous policy unchanged.
Over the weekend, Saudi Arabia itself pledged to reduce supply by 500,000 barrels per day. Other members, including Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Algeria, followed suit, while Russia said output cuts imposed from March to June would last until the end of 2023. This means that from next month, oil production will be reduced by about 1.1 million barrels per day.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said, “The global oil market is currently going through a period of high volatility and uncertainty due to the ongoing banking crisis in the United States and Europe, uncertainty in the global economy, and unpredictable and short-sighted energy policy decisions. forecast period. At the same time, stability and transparency in the global oil market are key to ensuring long-term energy security.”
Regarding OPEC+’s unexpected move, the United States said that under current market conditions, OPEC’s decision to reduce oil production by 1 million barrels per day is unwise.
Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast immediately after OPEC+ announced production cuts. The agency raised its price forecast for Brent crude oil by the end of 2023 from $90/barrel to $95/barrel, and by the end of 2024 from $97/barrel to $100/barrel.
Goldman Sachs also said that OPEC + has very large pricing power than in the past, and this unexpected production cut is consistent with their new principle of preemptive strike, because they can act without significant loss of market share.
At the same time, Guotai Junan believes that although crude oil will still be affected by macro sentiment in the rest of 2023, the tightening of the supply side will help the price center to rise.
5.australiaAsiaCentral Bank, New Zealandorchidcentral bankwill publishinterest ratedecisionCertainly
An interest rate meeting will be held on Tuesday (4th) to decide whether to raise interest rates or stand still.
Data last week showed Australia’s inflation rate slowed to an eight-month low in February from a year earlier, while investors largely ruled out a 25 basis point rate hike.
RBA Governor Philip Lowe previously said the central bank was closer to a pause in rate hikes as monetary policy is now in a restrictive range, and suggested a pause in rate hikes could come as early as April, depending on data.
At the same time, the market is still betting that interest rates will be raised by another 25 basis points at the interest rate meeting on Wednesday (5th).
[This article is from Yingwei Caiqing Investing.com, to read more, please log in to cn.investing.com or download Yingwei Caiqing App]
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Compiler: Liu Chuan
