It research was carried out by SEO Economic Research and To70, on behalf of the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management. The research calculates the effects for aviation of four possible future scenarios.
In the most optimistic scenario, the virus is quickly under control and the aviation sector will recover to the level of 2019 in the first half of 2021. In the most pessimistic scenario, the virus will not be under control and travel restrictions will remain in force for a long time.
The latter is a true horror scenario for aviation: confidence among travelers is declining and companies are increasingly switching to digital forms of communication. Social distancing is becoming the norm on the plane, reducing occupancy rates and increasing ticket prices.
“In combination with a global recession, this is leading to a significant drop in demand for aviation. Many airlines go bankrupt and Schiphol is losing its hub function ”, say the researchers. In that scenario, KLM would also go under, although according to the researchers, this is less likely now that the government provides financial support for billions.
Minus seventy to eighty percent
In the most optimistic scenario, the Dutch aviation sector will recover in 2021; in the most pessimistic scenario, passenger volumes will remain 70 to 80 percent below pre-crisis levels for a long time.
In 2020, the researchers expect, depending on the scenario, a loss of prosperity of EUR 900 million to EUR 1.3 billion. Gross employment and added value fall by 40,000 to 60,000 FTE and four to six billion euros respectively.
“In the most optimistic scenario, the effects will largely be limited to 2020; in the most pessimistic scenario the effects are more structural in nature,” the expectation is.
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