Research report text
1. Market analysis
soy flourThe major futures contract M2305 opened at 3,745 yuan/ton and closed at 3,788 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton, or 0.96%. The highest price was 3,798 yuan/ton, the the lowest price was 3,681 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 3,743 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 3.18 million lots, and the position was 1,143 million lots, an increase of 130,000 lots.
2. News situation
1. Domestic soybean meal spot quotation today (yuan/ton)
2. US relations with ChinasoyThe latest export statistics: 1.48 million tons of soybeans were shipped to China last week
WASHINGTON, Dec. 22: The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report showed that total US soybean export sales to China (Mainland) increased 9.8 percent so far this year on on an annual basis and increased by 10.9% in the previous week.
As of December 15, 2022, in the 2022/23 year (starting September 1), US soybean export shipments to China (Mainland) will be approximately 17.51 million tons, compared with 17.68 million tons in the same period last year . The United States shipped 1.48 million tons of soybeans to China this week, compared to 1.06 million tons of soybeans shipped to China the previous week.
So far, the US has sold 7.73 million tons of soybeans to China but did not ship them in 2022/23, up from 5.32 million tons in the same period last year.
So far in 2022/23, total US soybean sales to China (loaded and unloaded sales) were 25.25 million tons, up 9.8% year-over-year.
3. Chinese soybean imports from Argentina increased in November, benefiting from soybean dollar policy
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on Dec. 21, China imported 1.15 million tons of soybeans from Argentina in November, a figure significantly higher than October’s 160,987 tons and an increase of 17, 8% over the same period last year.
The surge in imports was due to frantic buying of Argentine soybeans by Chinese buyers in September and October, when they were offered significantly less than rivals Brazil and the United States. As the Argentine government implemented a soybean dollar policy in September, setting the exchange rate for soybeans at 200 pesos to the dollar when the official exchange rate was around 140 pesos, this helped attract Argentine farmers to sell 13.9 million tons of soybeans in one month.
4. National Grain and Oil Information Center: Domestic soybean meal supply and inventory increase
In the past week, mills crushed more soybeans than arrived in Hong Kong and inventories are dwindling. Monitoring shows that at the end of last week, the trade inventory of imported soybeans from major oil factories across the country stood at 4.05 million tons, down 420,000 tons from the previous week, with an increase of 630,000 tons compared to the same period last month , and a decrease of 270,000 tons compared to the same period last year. In the past week, the operating rate of oil rigs has risen to a high level, and the accumulation process of soybeans has been halted. However, with the arrival of a large number of soybeans in the following period, stockpiles soybeans continue to increase in the long run.
Ground soybean meal remained elevated last week, soybean meal production increased and inventories increased for the fourth consecutive week. On December 19, the soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil factories was 370,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons over the same period last week, an increase of 200,000 tons from the low point of the year, a decrease of 220,000 tons compared to the same period of the previous year, and a decrease of 270,000 tons compared to the same period of the last three years. This week, the start-up level of oil rigs may reach 2.1 million tons. Spot soybean meal supply is plentiful and enterprises’ delivery speed is accelerating, but the transaction is average and the inventory of the soybean meal could continue to increase in the following period.
5. As of Dec. 15, the total number of US soybean export inspections decreased 8.7% year over year
WASHINGTON, Dec. 19: The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Weekly Export Inspection report showed that inspection volume on U.S. soybean exports decreased 13.8 percent last week compared to a week ago and 15.2% over the same period last year.
U.S. soybean export inspections for the week ending December 15, 2022 were 1,619,850 tons, compared to 1,878,278 tons last week and 1,909,031 tons a year prior. So far, the 2022-23 season (as of Sept. 1) total inspections on US soybean exports were 25,036,140 mt, down 8.7% year over year. It fell 8.4% year over year last week and 10.9% year over year two weeks ago. US soybean export inspections met 45.0% of the USDA target, compared to 42.0% completed the previous week.
3. Summary
In the international market, the US soybean market has entered the South American time, and the impact of climate change in South America on the market is becoming more and more evident. At present, soybean planting in Brazil has basically finished, and the progress of soybean planting in Argentina is significantly lower than in the same period last year. The latest weather forecast shows that Argentina’s soybean andCornThe growing region should see rain later in the week, and the market will be watching closely to see how much that rain will improve growing conditions for local crops. Dry weather has less impact on Brazil. With the exception of some dry spells, early growth of soybeans in most of Brazil is basically normal. The country will begin harvesting soybeans at the end of January. In the domestic market, the current domestic soybean meal inventory has risen to 400,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 100,000 tons. Judging by the current arrival of soybeans in Hong Kong and the operating pace of the oil plants, the supply of soybean meal is still secure. Market outlook will focus on domestic soybean arrivals, spot stock performance and weather conditions in South America.
Sina statement: This news is reproduced by Sina cooperative media. Sina.com publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information, which is not to agree with his views or confirm his description. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors act accordingly at their own risk.
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in the Sina Finance APP
