/ world today news/ Taiwan’s armed forces will begin large-scale military exercises in mid-May with the participation of foreign partners. The purpose is to practice actions in the event of an invasion from mainland China. Taipei have powerful outside players in their side, but it is not yet clear how far they are willing to go. About the prospects before the crisis – in the material.
Under the supervision of the “Five Eyes”
Since last year, forces of the People’s Liberation Army of China (PLA) have regularly maneuvered near Taiwan, which has declared independence from China.
In response to Beijing’s actions, Taipei is preparing to repel possible attacks.
The Han Quan exercises have been held in Taiwan since 1984. This year, however, they will not be routine at all.
According to the island’s Ministry of National Defense, the goal is to work out real scenarios for an intervention. The planning phase will take place from May 15 to 19, and military operations will take place from July 24 to 28, said Major General Lin Wen-Huan, who is in charge of international relations at the MNO.
The computerized military exercises are based on the US Joint Theater Simulation Platform, he said. It is used to simulate coalition civil and military operations at the operational level.
The simulations will run around the clock for five consecutive days to test the ability of military personnel to coordinate steps.
In addition to Taiwan, the maneuvers involve the forces of the Five Eyes, an intelligence alliance that includes Australia, Britain, Canada, New Zealand and the United States.
The focus will be on testing the military’s ability to hold its position in the event of a full-scale attack and conduct “sea interceptions” of PLA ships, Lin said.
The maneuvers will involve using civilian airfields, dispersing military aircraft and then combining naval, air and ground forces to strike back.
However, Lin sidestepped the question of whether they planned to simulate an attack on China’s newest aircraft carrier, the Shandong, which recently conducted its first exercise in the western Pacific near Taiwan.
The major general also did not directly say whether the civilian sites would become training grounds for the military. Earlier, an anonymous source said that, among other things, the Taitun County Airport in the southeast of the island will take part in the maneuvers. It was built in 1981 and the armed forces have not yet trained there.
What will happen in 2027
Taiwan’s intelligence separately notes that participation in the Five Eyes maneuvers helps Taipei “understand the motives” of Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Beijing still advocates a diplomatic solution to the separatist problem. But Taiwan believes that course may change.
“The Chinese president does not allow any other voice in China’s political system,” Tsai Ming-yen, director general of Taiwan’s National Security Bureau, told Bloomberg. This means that “the risk of making the wrong decision will be much higher.”
It is now very important for Taipei to work with other partners, he said: “We share some information with our international friends. They also share data with us. So we have a kind of cooperation with our friends on China’s military movements.”
The intelligence chief did not disclose details of the contingency plan, but noted that the work is aimed at preventing a potential conflict. It was recently revealed that Taiwan will acquire 400 anti-ship missiles from the US.
In December 2022, Taiwanese authorities extended the period of compulsory military service for citizens from four months to one year. In addition, Taipei closed a deal to buy F-35 jets from Washington, although the Americans are reluctant to sell them even to Turkey, their NATO partner.
Tsai did not discuss the timing of a potential invasion, but noted the importance of 2027 for Xi: “If you look at the long-term military modernization of China’s program and the political significance of 2027, you will know that you really have to be on guard.”
Whether Beijing decides to take any action in Taiwan depends not only on the PLA’s readiness, Taipei believes. Xi, Tsai says, is likely to be preoccupied with domestic issues, including economic recovery after the pandemic: “China’s president faces uncertainty in Chinese society, both economically and socially. I think it will take a lot of energy from Xi Jinping in the coming months or years.”
Reluctant allies
Despite the optimism of the military and intelligence officials, Taiwanese diplomats admit that the island is in a difficult situation. In an interview with Australian media in late April, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said the self-proclaimed republic must rely on its own forces in the event of a conflict with China.
“That’s a very good question,” the diplomat said when reporters asked who could theoretically speak from the Taiwanese side.
“Many discuss strategic uncertainty or strategic clarity, but we realize our responsibility. Taiwan must defend itself, people must defend Taiwan, and we don’t want other countries to fight for us,” the minister added.
US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns later said: Washington has been consistent in its approach to Taiwan and insists that “any resolution of differences must be peaceful.” At the same time, the US “has an obligation and also a vested interest in ensuring that we can provide defensive weapons so that the Taiwanese authorities have adequate protection.”
Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles said back in March that his country had made no promises to support the US in a future conflict over Taiwan. Rumors of such guarantees emerged after the conclusion of an agreement to acquire American nuclear submarines from Canberra.
The ambiguity of statements by foreign partners is understood in Taipei. So, says Joseph Wu, Taiwan is now working to maintain the status quo – without entering a heated phase of conflict.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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