Invade without bloodshed? China’s most realistic plan to force Taiwan to surrender

It cannot be said that the Taiwan Strait has never been one of the most stable areas in the world. But even by local standards, this summer is among the most the most tense that can be remembered. Chinese ships intercepting and arresting Taiwanese fishermen off the Kinmen Islands, unprecedented violations of Taiwan’s so-called Air Defense Zone (ADIZ), with up to 66 aircraft of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army lurking around the island and penetrating the so-called reaction perimeter. Beijing’s rhetoric has risen considerably, giving the green light to laws establishing death sentences for “irreducible Taiwanese separatists.”

And as always, the threat of a possible future invasion still looms, like an eternal sword of Damoclesover the heads of Taiwanese citizens.

Invade Taiwan, however, It is not an easy task. The country has important natural defenses And despite its shortcomings, the Taiwanese military has been preparing for such an operation for some time. Taiwan’s chief of staff has said on occasion that his job is to make the costs for a potential occupying force as high as possible, so that every day Xi Jinping wakes up in the morning and thinks: “Today is not the day”.

Beijing is aware of the myriad of problems that military action would entail, from the possibility of suffering a significant number of casualties to the risk of an escalation that would entangle them in a war with the United States and its allies. China’s deteriorating image in the world, the imposition of sanctions against its economy and diplomatic rejection also have an influence. Therefore, Xi’s government could opt for another strategy to force Taipei to capitulate without resorting to force military, saving economic and political wear and tear, and avoiding a casus belli of course it can mobilize other countries in support of Taiwan.

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“I don’t think an invasion will happen. It makes much more sense to take other kinds of actions that would ultimately force Taiwan to accept an ultimatum, such as a new legislative framework “by which the People’s Republic of China is subjected,” says a Western journalist based in Taipei, who asks not to be named, giving as an example what happened with the suppression in fact Hong Kong’s autonomy since 2020 (despite international agreements with the United Kingdom in force until 2047).

‘Historical inevitability’

This former correspondent in Beijing is one of several people who in recent years have been expelled from China for their critical reporting and have resettled in Taiwan. “I love it, because it is as a democratic Chinawhich is something I thought was not possible,” he says in conversation with El Confidencial. Even so, he is not optimistic about the future of the island.

“The PRC (People’s Republic of China) will probably wait until after the US elections and If Donald Trump wins, he will try to reach some agreement with him. The Americans will probably be too consumed by their internal problems to devote attention and resources to a situation that would be dramatic for the Taiwanese, but which would be very difficult to raise awareness about if there is no bloodshed,” he says.

This is the key. Do not shed (too much) blood. To do this, China could increase its campaign of coercive actionss on the call grey area, These measures do not amount to acts of war but would, over a period of years, give Beijing a strategic and diplomatic advantage, preventing the island from gaining formal independence and reserving the option of using force, experts say.

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“China’s patient and long-term policy on Taiwan, which treats unification as a ‘historical inevitability’coupled with a modest history of military actions abroad, suggests that Beijing’s most likely plan is to gradually escalate the policy it is already pursuing: a disturbing transgression of Taiwan’s air, sea and information space,” the experts write. Jennifer Kavanagh e Isaac Kardon in a recent article in the magazine Foreign Affairs

The latter would also allow Confuse Taipei’s allies and make a response difficult. “US leaders could find themselves mired in debates over whether China has crossed a red line. With Washington paralysed by uncertainty over how far China intends to push its grey zone tactics, much of the responsibility for countering China’s campaign of transgression would fall on Taiwan itself,” Kavanagh and Kardon note.

But what kind of actions could force Taipei’s hand to that point? The most obvious one that many observers are considering is the imposition of a naval blockade of the island that would destroy its economy. Many experts believe that this is exactly what China rehearsed last May, when its navy was deployed around Taiwan just days after Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te was inaugurated, as a form of intimidation. “The short duration of military exercises United Sword-2024A It shows that The US and Japan would not have time to intervene”notes Lu Li-shih, a former instructor at the Taiwanese Naval Academy in Kaohsiung, in an interview with the South China Morning Post newspaper.

A disastrous economic blockade

This hypothetical blockade could take several forms, from a “customs inspection regime”in which the Chinese military could search and seize goods on ships bound for or leaving Taiwan, strictly quarantine vessels, and even go as far as a complete lockdown, with warships blocking the free flow of maritime trade. At its most extreme, this could cause damage to the global economy. 5.000 trillion (with a b) dollarsaccording to estimates from Bloomberg’s geoeconomics unit, putting the global supply of microchips in jeopardy.

The island’s political and military leadership is concerned about this scenario, as El Confidencial has been able to confirm in conversations with senior officials of the Taiwanese government. “Taiwan is self-sufficient in terms of food, But our weak point is energy.“We have enough petroleum-based fuels for 180 days, but natural gas only for two weeks,” he says. Ming Shih-shendeputy director of the Taipei Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR).

The possibility of a blockage generates debate among analystsSome believe that this possibility would be doomed to failure and would therefore be ruled out by the Chinese authorities.

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“An economic blockade, rather than a full-blown military invasion, has a low probability of success. Beijing is unlikely to carry out such an operation; in fact, it has not yet attempted it, despite having had the capacity to do so for decades. An attempt at an economic blockade would almost inevitably lead to war or a humiliating defeat for China,” he notes. Dmitri Alperovitchdirector of the consulting firm Silverado and author of a recent book on the Taiwan conflict.

There are several reasons for this. Firstly, the economic damage that this would cause to China itself, which depends heavily on some Taiwanese technologies, such as advanced semiconductors. In addition, Taipei would be in a position to impose its own blockade against the main Chinese ports with its indigenously developed Ching Tien cruise missiles. Thus, one way or another, it would be almost inevitable that the blockade of the island would quickly slide into open war.

“If Taiwan is pinning its hopes for survival on Beijing seeking options other than war, you are making a serious mistake”, Alperovitch concludes.

China would only need four years

That doesn’t mean there isn’t Other options. In May, a report A joint report by the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War outlined how China could force Taipei to surrender through a hybrid campaign without an invasion. “China could exploit Taiwanese vulnerabilities, particularly Taiwan’s international isolation and lack of alliances, in a coordinated campaign short of war.” inflict massive pain on Taiwanese society and prevent US intervention,” its authors note.

According to this report, Beijing could achieve this through continuous operation within a period of just four yearsworking on three axes. First, to break the relationship between Taiwan and the US; second, to degrade the executive capacity of the Taiwanese government; and third, to undermine the will of the Taiwanese to resist (and of the Americans to help the island). This would generate a “cognitive overload”reducing the ability of the Taiwanese authorities to react, while bombarding the American population with well-targeted messages that it is not worth going to war with Taiwan.

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At the same time, China would deploy a series of actions to significantly erode the quality of life of Taiwanese peopleresorting to economic coercive measures, the interruption of services through cyberattacks and sabotage actions, carried out by organized crime groups instrumentalized by Chinese intelligence services, among other possible actions. Ultimately, the Taiwanese government and/or society would be induced to conclude that the best option to end the suffering is to accept China’s terms.

“I’m telling my friends that Visit Taiwan while you still can”, says the Western journalist in Taipei.

In fact, it is possible that This campaign has already started.

“The country suffers at least One million cyber attacks a day. Since Lai came to power, we are receiving 2.8 million people a day on average,” a senior Taiwanese official told us, but he believes that the outcome is far from predetermined. “The PRC is only offering the ‘one country, two systems’ model, and we have already seen that in Hong Kong.” the value of your promises. We Taiwanese value our freedoms very much. No matter what happens, the Taiwanese people will resist.”