By Maxence Gorregues
Published on
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Thursday, February 24, 2022 at the start of the day, Russian strikes were reported in several cities ofUkraine. “By choosing war, Vladimir Putin has decided to carry the most serious attack on peace in Europe for decades”. It is with these words that at midday, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, depicted the situation.
How did we get here ? How will the European Union react? What are the consequences of this war in Ukraine for the daily life of the French? The analysis of Taoufik Djebalispecialist in international relations at Caen University (Calvados).
News: Why did Russia decide to attack Ukraine this morning?
Taoufik Djebali: It was predictable, especially for the Americans. In Europe in recent weeks, we thought it was more of a bluff. But for the Russians, everything was perfectly calculated. This offensive is to convince the world that Russia has once again become a major player on the international scene, to show that the Russian army is a formidable force today. The message is also to tell Westerners that from now on it is absolutely necessary to negotiate with Russia on major international issues.
The territorial question is only a pretext. Russia is a great country already. I am not sure that the Kremlin decided to occupy Ukraine to recover deposits of raw material.
Vladimir Putin also sends a message to the Russian population, as if to tell them that they are part of a country that knows how to scare, which must be respected.
“A European military intervention is not on the agenda”
The European Union will announce rapid economic sanctions against Russia. Can there be, in the days to come, a military counter-offensive by EU member countries?
TD : The situation of the European Union is very complicated, because even if the Russians are dependent on the Europeans, financial sanctions will have indirect repercussions on Europe. As we know, the Russians’ response will be at the level of gas.
But doing nothing would be deadly for European politicians. The reaction of Europeans will be interesting to follow because I am not sure that the locals are in favor of paying a high price to save Ukraine from the clutches of Russia. A European military intervention is not on the agenda.
In his midday speech, Emmanuel Macron spoke of the consequences for the French. What kind can they be?
TD : There are countries like Germany which can hardly do without Russian gas, which accounts for 40% of their consumption. In France, it is 20%. This conflict will have repercussions on purchasing power, even if it is too early to say how much. Price inflation on certain products is to be feared, such as for gas therefore, but also on wheat…
Purchasing power is at the heart of the presidential campaign in France. Can this crisis benefit one candidate over another?
TD : Personally, I don’t think so. A few candidates seemed closer to Russia than others in recent weeks. But, they did not think that a direct military intervention in Ukraine was possible. Today, they can only deplore it. As for the outgoing president, Emmanuel Macron, who has tried to negotiate for a peaceful outcome in recent weeks, he will not benefit from his recent efforts. It is a conflict that generates concern but which should not affect the French political class.
“A Russian-American war is to be excluded”
You, who are a specialist in US foreign relations, what is Washington’s point of view on this conflict?
TD : There are a lot of concerns. For a long time, the American population has grown up with anti-Russian sentiment. There is firm opposition from the Americans to what is happening today in Ukraine. But few Americans are in favor of an intervention by their army. A Russian-American war is to be ruled out.
At the same time, politically, there is a rise of the American far right which is rather favorable to Putin, who is seen as a strong man to be emulated. It conveys an image of power. In European countries, this profile also appeals to far-right supporters.
Will Europeans and Americans deliver arms to Ukraine?
TD : If the Russian occupation advances and settles in time, most likely. Especially if the Russians advance to Kiev. The Americans have already begun gave anti-aircraft missiles. For Europe, the answer to this question will be given in the coming days.
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