The EU is a political dwarf in international crises. The European governments did not find out about the withdrawal from Afghanistan from the newspapers, but they had no say when President Biden announced the unconditional withdrawal. The Russian troop deployment on the Ukrainian border immediately makes all European governments look to Washington. Europeans are incapable of deterrence and defense. The EU states play no role in the discussions about the forcible unification of China with Taiwan, which are meanwhile being conducted intensively. Because the EU is – terrible to say! – not a global actor who is taken seriously in conflicts. It is often downright irrelevant for their developments. Does it have to stay that way?
“We Europeans must …”
When Chancellor Merkel said in 2017: “The times when we could completely rely on others are a bit over” and therefore demanded: “We Europeans really have to take our fate into our own hands”, would be one after twelve years as Chancellor might think that, at least from now on, German foreign policy will take its task seriously. To cut a long story short: that was not the case. In the four years since then, Europe’s voice and influence have not grown.
On the contrary. Brexit weakened the EU, and it failed because of its few crisis tasks in the pandemic. It has fallen behind the USA and China in every respect, and what’s more: The feeling is spreading that nothing can be expected from the EU. If their foreign representative, Borrell, promises the Ukrainian government “unshakable EU support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine” in the face of massive Russian troop movements, that has only the value of a placebo.
The EU cannot solve an international crisis
The governments failed to develop the EU into a politically serious actor over the past 15 years. That will cost European societies dearly. Because it was foreseeable that the USA would not be able to maintain its position as the sole world power in the long term. Not necessarily because the US is going down, but because others are going up. Above all China. Just not the EU. Even the shock when President Trump decided to leave NATO and start a trade war with the EU did not wake the weary governments. The disoriented and strategy-free processing of downplayed steps remained the measure of European foreign policy.
No crisis has been resolved in the last 15 years, so its causes disappeared and the EU emerged stronger. Greece is now more heavily indebted than it was at the time of the euro crisis; the Eastern European countries tremble at Russia’s armed forces; the EU cannot protect its external border and is waiting for the next wave of migrants from Afghanistan. While the American and Chinese economies are booming, the EU continues to shut down. Nobody wants to know anymore that the EU cannot defend itself militarily and is incapable of projecting stability into its geographical environment.
Precisely because the situation has proceeded like this, thought must be given to how the EU can get out of it. Gerhard Schröder calls for the dissolution of NATO and rapprochement with Russia. Others recommend a new proximity to the US. Tobias Endler and Stefan Baron come up with alternative ideas. Both are concerned with the emancipation of the EU, with global political independence. In the end, both have to be asked: Is that realistic for the next ten years?
EU + Trapezoid
Since the former West no longer exists, Tobias Endler sees two dangers: Either the EU will become dependent on the USA or China or will be ignored by both. So he is looking for a global political substance for Europe that cannot be found in either the West or the East, but has its own geopolitical foundation. He calls the EU + Trapeze, the area from the Baltic states to the left (Great Britain is there!) Along France to North Africa and from Egypt via Turkey to Belarus.
The EU as the core, the surrounding states as the sphere of influence. This is necessary in terms of security policy and necessary in terms of economic policy, and it is in the interests of all states involved. The EU + trapeze could be of international importance in equilibrium with Russia, China and the USA if the EU scaled back its unattainable ambitions and sets priorities. The European way of life is strong soft power.
It is sorely necessary to think creatively about the geopolitical situation of the EU. In the fringes of Endler’s trapezoid, however, Russia, the USA and China have already marked their interests noticeably. The question is how the EU can address this.
Changing alliances
Stefan Baron does not see the geopolitical exploitation as necessary. It is enough for the EU to emancipate itself from the USA, gain strategic autonomy and ensure that a multipolar world emerges. To do this, the European states would have to leave NATO, found a European military alliance and turn to the Asian region. Baron is convinced of the American downfall and the rise of a multipolar order that will be less missionary and warlike. Because China will set the tone in the future.
Multipolarity is a complex concept because changing alliances can form and these changes involve the risk of war. With a view to the rapprochement between the USA and China in the 1970s, Baron writes: “At the time, Washington obviously considered it unthinkable that China could one day grow into a real rival. It must now bitterly atone for its mistake: Moscow and Beijing face it as opponents today. “Kissinger saw this coming when he said to Nixon:” In twenty years your successor, if he is as clever as she is, will be the cause of the other side and approach the Russians as a counterweight to the Chinese. ”That would have been Clinton and Yeltsin.
Baron’s recommendation is: The EU should cooperate with everyone in the international area of mutual respect and equality. It’s a shame that this respect space doesn’t exist. Anyone who does not sit at the table internationally is on the menu. How the EU will get a seat at the table is still open. The failure in the corona pandemic has catapulted them further towards the menu.
Stefan Baron: Americans go home! A new measurement of the world, Econ, Berlin 2021
Tobias Endler: Game Over. Why the West no longer exists, orell füssli, Zurich 2020
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