International law expert Cecilie Hellestveit has written a book about the war in Ukraine and offers clear warnings to Norwegian politicians.
In the book “Bad News from the Eastern Front”, the author of books on the wars in Syria and Yemen addresses the black and white images drawn by the war in Ukraine and points out how Europe will change beyond recognition.
In the book, Hellestveit tries to explain the background to the war and what geopolitical consequences it has, not least for Norway and our relations with the outside world, primarily with Russia and the EU.
– I hope I can give people a slightly bigger picture of the war and the economic counterwar against Russia, Hellestveit tells NTB.
– Putin took a vacation
Violation of the Charter of the United Nations
Hellestveit leaves no doubt that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a clear violation of the UN Charter, but at the same time he believes the West is meeting at the door.
When then US President Bill Clinton decided in 1999 to bomb Serbian forces outside the Kosovo province, it was also a violation of the UN Charter. The same was true of the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, he points out.
President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly referred to this and claims that it was the United States that set a precedent in international law with these acts of war. The approach of Western countries to the use of force and international law is perceived by Russia as a double standard, Hellestveit notes.
NOT IRRATIONAL: We must not be led to believe that Vladimir Putin is irrational, believes international law expert Cecilie Hellestveit. Here is the Russian president together with the country’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu. Photo: AP / NTB
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Superpower of the Black Sea
According to Hellestveit, one of Russia’s main goals in Ukraine is to secure a land bridge to the Crimean peninsula and consolidate its role as a major Black Sea power.
The Sea of Azov is the outlet of the waterways that connect Russia through the Volga and Don rivers and through the Kerch Strait Russia also has access to the Black Sea. The major powers are gearing up maritime and the oceans connect together. the world economy.
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– If the Black Sea were to become a NATO sea, as the Baltic Sea is about to become after Sweden and Finland join NATO, all Russian military waterways to the west will end up in the north, in the Barents Sea. Russia’s maritime capabilities will therefore be concentrated to a greater extent in the north, in the immediate vicinity of Norway, Hellestveit points out.
If Russia loses the war in Ukraine, the Chinese military presence will likely increase in our immediate vicinity in support of Russia, he fears.
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unprepared
– The story of Ukrainians’ heroic struggle against Russian invasion forces is mobilized to such an extent that it was easy for politicians in countries like Norway to draw a line beyond the post-war principle of not sending weapons to warring countries, he notes Hellestveit.
The Norwegian platform in the Barents Sea, where oil and gas are located, is not Norwegian sovereign territory and is covered by the power ban in the UN Charter. A forward-looking and militarized Russia could present Norway with significant challenges, which Norwegian politicians are not prepared for, he believes.
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Interest policy
At the same time, the EU is becoming a strong foreign and security policy actor, which will strengthen the Union’s influence in NATO. Norway is in danger of falling into a quagmire, not because of the decisions taken in Oslo, but in Brussels, believes Hellestveit.
– In the coming years, the EU’s foreign and security policy is likely to be subject to an increasingly clear geopolitical interest policy, which will aim to protect the EU and promote EU interests, whatever the cost. The distance between Brussels and Oslo is likely to increase, he believes.
– The risk of being out of the EU will be much higher, but so will the price of EU entry, says Hellestveit, who calls for a broad discussion on the choice of path following the war in Ukraine. You doubt that today is the climate to have this discussion.
SECURE CONTROL: One of Russia’s main goals with the invasion of Ukraine was likely to secure control over the Azov coast and access to the Black Sea, which Russian forces have achieved, the expert believes. international law Cecilie Hellestveit. Photo: AP / NTB
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Waiting for criticism
Because of its location and border with Russia, Norway must have a different relationship with the Kremlin than our neighbors in the Nordic countries and the rest of Europe, which will be very challenging to defend against our allies, says Hellestveit.
– Nobody wants to appear or be portrayed as a traitor to the community at a time like ours, and many refuse to take or take sides in the debate, where questions about their loyalty or “function as spokesperson for a foreign power” easily arise, she writes.
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Hellestveit expects it will receive criticism from some quarters, but takes it lightly.
– I have been involved in this many times before, and it is exactly the same mechanism here that I know from other wars and conflicts. Some people are so closely tied to one of the warring parties that they don’t accept the nature of the world, says Hellestveit.
– But I can hold out for a while, he laughs.
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