Ecuador It has eighty days of internal armed conflict. The government of Daniel Noboa declared the existence of an internal confrontation against 22 criminal gangs, which were classified as terrorist groups.
With this declaration, the uniformed men were sent to the streets to collaborate with urban control. Furthermore, the Armed forces (FF.AA.) took internal control of 12 of the 36 prisons in the Ecuador and the Police of the outer perimeters of all prisons.
This security strategy, in accordance with the Government and the National Police, has borne fruit. According to the data managed by the Police, violent deaths were reduced by 27% compared to the data managed by the government of Guillermo Lasso.
Under the previous government, there was a weekly average of 162 murders. While since the possession of Noboa The average is 117 crimes per week. This crime is the main indicator of violence and insecurity in a country.
Favorable scenarios
From January 1 to mid-March of this year, 1,199 homicides were committed in the country. In the same period of 2023, however, 1,489 violent deaths were recorded.
Based on this data, the Police made a mathematical model to project what could happen in the remainder of 2024.
A study, to which First fruits was able to access, it showed three possible scenarios for the next 36 weeks.
- Optimistic: 1,235 violent deaths
- Realistic: 1,487 violent deaths
- Pessimistic: 1,739 violent deaths
According to this projection, in 2024 – in the worst scenario – Ecuador It could reach 2,938 violent deaths. Which would be notably lower than the 7,872 murders that occurred in 2023.
In 2023, the Ecuador It closed with a rate of 43.19 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. And if the pessimistic projection of the Police is fulfilled, in 2024 it could close with up to a rate of 16.41. The reduction would be 62.01% at the end of the year.
The criminal world is restructured
According to information from police intelligence sources, the internal armed conflict reconfigured the criminal panorama in the country.
Firstly, by taking control of the prisons, the gangs were left without their center of operations. From prisons, criminals ordered homicides, coordinated drug shipments and directed kidnapping and extortion networks.
Likewise, the capture and murder of several leaders produced an internal change in the gangs. For example, currently more than forty gang leaders are held incommunicado in the La Roca Maximum Security Prison, in Guayaquil.
According to the National Policethis is how criminal organizations are grouped:
This new division has also caused the emergence of new leaderships, alliances and enemies in the criminal world. Which, in turn, generates outbreaks of violence focused on settling scores and conflicts over territories, according to the Police.
For example, the weekend of March 22 to 25, 2024, in the Ecuador There were 69 homicides. Six of these occurred in a massacre in st. Helen.
According to the Police, they confronted The Choneros y The Fatalswho – although they are allies – wage a war in that territory to avoid the fragmentation of the band.
The Police say that although this weekend was violent, the daily average of 17 murders, which was reached since the declaration of the internal armed conflict, was maintained. While before, there were days when up to fifty violent deaths occurred.
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