Interesting things have begun in Russian society: the coming months are defined as critical for Putin

Politologist Mindaugas Jurkynas Delphi he said that the economic and reputational blows to the country, the deaths of the Russians in the war are understood as losses on the dubious side of Russian society.

According to him, if people started going to the streets not for the war, but for economic reasons, it could become a problem for the Kremlin, because they would not be satisfied with the fact that they started fighting, they would not go to prisons.

Putin’s supporters were impressed

The mobilization announced by V. Putin has infuriated Russian society. Some Russians fled abroad, others bought with their own money and went to war. Videos of the mobilizations are spreading on social networks Russians he complains about the dirt, the drunken comrades, the lack of training, the lack of weapons. We have already talked about the mobilized people who died in the war.

Analysts have been claiming for more than a week that the Russian president, who kept the war away from ordinary Russians, took a very risky step, because the public may not forgive him for it.

But the Russian opposition politician Gennady Gudkov recently stated that there is no Russian company that can be talked about in general.

“The Russians are divided into completely opposite and irreconcilable camps,” he recently told Ukrainian Internet TV “Freedom Live”.

According to the opposition, the Russian president’s hardliners and war supporters, who are most influenced by propaganda, are around 20-25 percent in the country.

G. Gudkov says that it was these people who were very happy with the bombing by the Russian army of peaceful Ukrainian residents, following the damage to the Crimean bridge.

“They were thrilled because they felt some power again.” If they do not feel the power, these people cannot do anything, neither sleep nor eat. They have nothing, I’m sorry, they live from pay to pay and they want this feeling of virtual power as compensation, “said the opposition politician.

According to him, the attack on Ukrainian civilians should have saved V. Putin’s assessments and should have shown his audience that he is still capable of something.

“They were meant for that part of society, which doesn’t react to anything else, just rockets, tanks, explosions, fires. V. Putin’s war is terrorist and he no longer hopes to win it by military means. Those cruel images. Kremlin supporters like them, who are no less crazy and whose brains were frozen during the Cold War, “he said.

Another layer of society – easily zombiesbut the Russians, who, according to G. Gudkov, should be about 40 per cent in their country, are somewhat doubtful.

“These people are now surrounded by anxiety, which is mainly related to mobilization. It has dealt a severe blow to V. Putin’s support among these people. Very interesting and important processes are happening here, dissatisfaction and the like,” he said.

The opponent pointed out that this segment of society has stood out as it previously silently supported V. Putin and did not express its opinion very clearly.

However, it is said that this is already changing: “People living in Russia tell me that now you say you are against war and they seem to surround you like flies and start talking. Because they have no one to talk to, now you can go to jail. for every negligent word “.

According to the opposition representative, there are also people who do not support the war: they mainly express themselves on Twitter.

According to G. Gudkov, Russian society is now so opposed that it does not even exclude the possibility of a civil war.

“Frankly, a civil war is brewing in Russia. Because mutual hatred between different sectors of society is growing, confrontation is increasing, mutual understanding is decreasing, no one will even seek compromises,” he stressed.

Another Russian opponent, Leonidas Gozman, recently mentioned the civil war, but sees it as a possible betrayal of the struggle for power.

In an interview with Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Gordon, L. Gozman said he believes that V. Putin will not last long in power and that a seizure of power by force could follow, which could be carried out by actors such as Ramzan Kadyrov or Yuri Prigozhin.

“They could take power in Moscow for a while in blood, it would be a civil war in which they could win for a while, but they wouldn’t reign for long,” he reflected.

50 percent “swamp”

Russian political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin, who recently spoke about the mood in Russian society, presented numbers similar to those indicated by G. Gudkov.

According to him, the election results have shown year after year that about a quarter of Russian voters always vote for so-called “cheers patriots”.

“And that 25 percent can be considered those who support imperial ideology, but at the same time there are nationalists too, which seems to contradict the imperial logic. These are people with a militarized conscience,” he told the Ukrainian channel recently. ICTV.

D. Oreshkin is convinced that V. Putin’s phenomenon lies in the fact that he was able to connect 50 percent of the “swamp” to this 25 percent – people who have no deep convictions, but gather around a leader that seems strong to them.

“V. Putin has created the image of a strong leader, which is why his support is 75%. When he starts to lose, this” swamp “will disperse and that 25% will start accusing him of cowardice,” he stressed. and assured that this is precisely why the Russian president will find himself in a rather negative position in the coming months.

Most on the verge of collapse

“And that so-called majority of V. Putin is on the verge of collapse – it will dissipate like ghostly spells.” Because they really lived in a kind of ghostly fog that would shatter when it hit reality. When that happens, people will have to go through a cognitive dissonance: after all, we’ve made our way across the planet, getting up off our knees, putting the West in its place, and here are a few. Ukrainewhich does not even have its own statehood – as Putin has explained to us many times – has taken it and shown who is the boss “, said the political scientist.

The Russians are doing their best not to see what is happening on the front line, but as D. Oreshkin points out, they will have to.

According to him, Russia is a country where there is no so-called “mass”, it is going through a demographic crisis and even young people are divided.

“That is why I say that I do not see the conditions for a revolt. Everyone is hiding in their rooms, solving their individual tasks individually. Russia, as a society, ceased to exist thanks to V. Putin: we have not yet realized it. “, said the political scientist.

D. Oreshkina stressed that people are social beings who depend on the collective consciousness, which in this case is formed by state propaganda. Therefore, the accusations against the Russian people do not seem fair to him.

It does not rule out that Russians who do not support the regime will end up leaving for other countries.

“Coming from a country that destroys its subjects, it’s hard to call them citizens,” he said.

Professor Jean Monnet, Institute of International Relations and Political Science, Vilnius University Ramūnas Vilpišauskas Delphi he did not rule out that Russians who do not support V. Putin will leave for other countries.

“This scenario is possible. Probably for this reason Kremlin and does not take more proactive measures to prevent them from leaving. Because it would seem that this is not useful in Moscow from the point of view of mobilization. But the fact that they can leave shows that there may be an expectation that there will be a further potential reduction of those who are still able to think critically and pose a potential threat to the stability of the regime, “she said.

Jurkynas: The spark can be divided by the deterioration of the economy

Mindaugas Jurkynas, professor at Jean Monnet University of Vytautas Magnus, says that the fact that Russia is supported by fewer and fewer countries, economic and reputational losses, Russian deaths during the war are hitting part of Russian society as a cost. .

“Basically there are no victories, only increasing costs. And this can negatively affect the mood of the skeptical, cynical and inactive part of society. The accumulation of costs will always reinforce the doubt,” stressed the political scientist.

M. Jurkynas pointed out that for those Russians who have always lived badly, this will not have a great impact, because once they get used to a bad life, they easily adapt to an even worse life.

The interviewee stated that when people become dissatisfied with something, some of that dissatisfaction is directed to the authorities, regardless of how they can cope.

He speculated that the worsening economic situation could create a spark in society.

“Then maybe there could be a snowball effect. It is one thing to protest against the war, but you will not start protesting those who left because they lost their jobs or have no money for food, because there is no political reason. When the regime does not. can guarantee an agreement – you don’t get involved in politics, we will guarantee you certain socio-economic standards, then protests can be expected to begin about dissatisfaction with life, which can turn into something more, “thought M. Jurkynas.

Vilpišauskas: why haven’t you done anything before?

Commenting on the Russian opposition statements that there is no need to get angry with the Russians for not taking to the streets, because a very effective repressive apparatus has been created in the country, R. Vilpišauskas said that this can be answered with the question – where were they when this apparatus was being created and when did the first clashes with the protesters and the opposition occur?

“It’s been a long time – why wasn’t there an answer then?” I think this is now a serious problem for the opposition, “she said.

The interviewer said that it is difficult to talk about the mood of Russian society, because there is a great lack of sociological research studies that could show at least an approximate picture.

According to him, the public attitude towards mobilization could be interpreted in various ways, as it could be about personal safety and well-being.

“But does that say anything about citizenship and the attitude towards the regime in Russia?” It’s very hard to say, so I wouldn’t rush to make broader generalizations, “she said.