【Macro News】
1. The US dollar index climbed 1.5% to 109.85 points, registering the largest one-day percentage increase since March 2020, but still below the 20-year high of 110.79 points reached. last week. Following the release of inflation data, the index recovered from a decline.
2. The US Department of Labor said the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% in August after lying flat in July. Economists interviewed by Reuters had expected a drop of 0.1%. Fed officials will meet next Tuesday and Wednesday and inflation is now well above the Fed’s 2% target.
3. The special work of guaranteeing the delivery of real estate in China is done in an orderly manner The national government strives to achieve the goal of stabilizing land prices, asking for house prices and stabilizing expectations, constantly improving the mechanism of connection between four elements of people, housing, land and money, to determine housing for people, land for housing, Pay for housing. Regarding the guarantee of the handover of buildings, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, together with the Ministry of Finance, the People’s Bank of China and other relevant departments, issued special measures last month to support cities. needy in the promotion of construction and delivery of residential projects that have been sold overdue and difficult to deliver through special loans from political banks.Currently special works are performed in an orderly manner.
4. On September 14, the China Automobile Association released a brief analysis of the automobile export situation in August. According to statistics and analysis by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in August 2022, automobile exports reached a record level again, exceeding 300,000 units for the first time in history. In August 2022, 308,000 vehicles were exported, with a monthly increase of 6.2% and a year-on-year increase of 65%.
【Industry News】 ：
1.[Hindustan Copper prevede di aumentare la produzione di rame di oltre 3 volte nei prossimi 7-8 anni! ]Foreign News September 12, Hindustan Copper Co., Ltd. (HCL) is considering increasing its annual copper ore production to 12.2 million tons by fiscal year 2029, which is the first phase of the its expansion. HCL’s copper ore production in fiscal year 2022 is 3.57 million tons. The state sector said HCL plans to increase its mining capacity from current ore production levels to 12.2 million tons / year in the first phase over the next 7-8 years.
2.[L’ultima quotazione è ancora considerata troppo bassa e Rio Tinto potrebbe non essere in grado di controllare la gigantesca miniera di rame in Mongolia]On September 10, although mining giant Rio Tinto raised its share price, its plan to try to control a giant copper mine in Mongolia still failed. Last week, Rio Tinto agreed to buy a 49% stake in Canadian miner Turquoise Hill Resources for $ 3.3 billion (C $ 43 per share). Rio Tinto already owns 51% of Turquoise Mountain and is buying the remaining 49% to gain greater control of the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine.
【Futures level】todayShanghai copperWeak and fluctuating, the decline was evident throughout the day: the main month contract of 2210 opened at 62,920 yuan / ton and closed at 62,280 yuan / ton in daily trading, down 880 yuan / ton. at 1.39%.The US CPI in August was above market expectations, which raised market expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which brought the market back to the business logic of negative interest rate hikes .
【Spot Aspects】According to ccmn data, on September 14, the transaction price of spot copper # 1 in the Yangtze River was reported at 63310-63350 yuan / ton, down 660 yuan / ton; premium 160-200 premium, down 270 yuan / ton. On the spot market, the spot premium was halved, the holders of the goods had a strong willingness to exchange money and the receivers mainly bought at bargain prices.
【Inventory】As of September 14, the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper stocks fell by 625 tons to 103,025 tons, a decrease of 0.60%; as of September 14, the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s copper futures warehouse revenue was 3,224 tons, unchanged from the previous day;
On September 12, 2022, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 62,700 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons compared to September 5 and a decrease of 7,500 tons since September 8; the Shanghai inventory was 50,200 tons, down by 7,700 from September 5. tons, down 3,100 tons from September 8; Guangdong’s inventory was 8,300 tons, down 7,900 tons from September 5 and 1,500 tons from September 8.
【Supply】The Chilean copper mine is disturbed and Indonesia bans the export of raw copper; the domestic price of TC is rising and upstream spot supply is weak; the smelting price has fallen, causing the smelting profit to fall and the release of refined copper supply may slow down; the inflow of imported copper will have an impact on the spot supply market and the domestic limit will be limited. Electricity has recovered and electrolytic copper has basically returned to the market. Overall, short-term supply pressure has eased, but overall inventory is still at a historically low level.
【Requirements】Affected by high copper prices, demand is still weak and the real estate sector has not improved, so copper consumption is obviously dragged down. The data was better than market expectations, which increased copper consumption, but consumption was still significantly weaker than in the same period in previous years.
Comprehensive analysis, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly today, closing down 880 yuan, or 1.39%. Last night, the US announced inflation data that exceeded market expectations. The market was pessimistic about the pace of the Fed’s subsequent rate hikes. Weaker. According to Guotai Junan Futures, due to higher-than-expected CPI data in the US in August, the transactional logic of peak inflation was repeated again and the recovery of risk sentiment also halted. it weakened and the market was back on the negative macro side again. Copper prices greet the force. Short-term macros, interest rate hikes and fundamental games are playing. Today, Shanghai copper is testing lower support.
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