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See also: The MPC fights inflation blindfolded. “The times of Gomułka and Gierek are back”
Interest rates down before year-end? Experts: even 3-4 cuts possible
– Our economists forecast that in the maximum scenario, four rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points each are possible this year, although three cuts of 0.25 percentage points each seem more likely. – Leszek Skiba, the president of Bank Pekao, indicated in an interview with Business Insider Polska. Thus, the NBP reference rate would be 5.75 percent. or equal to 6 percent.
– This is a consequence of both the decline in current inflation and the structure of this decline. The more persistent core inflation has also started to decline, the decrease in price pressure applies to more and more categories of the inflation basket, explains Skiba.
The President of Pekao SA adds that the negative real interest rates so far have not sufficiently hampered the economy.
In a situation where inflation will fall rapidly, there could be a moment when interest rates in real terms would become painfully positive. This would be a factor that would hamper the Polish economy more strongly. That is why I believe that the NBP will cut interest rates in advance to avoid a scenario in which monetary policy tightening would take place pro-cyclically, through a large increase in real interest rates in the conditions of a weaker economic situation – he argues.
The consolidated net profit of Bank Pekao SA in the second quarter of 2023 amounted to PLN 1.693 billion and was more than three times higher than in the same period last year. The bank closed the entire first half of the year with a net profit of PLN 3.140 billion.
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2023-08-04 08:26:43
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