Inter-Atalanta, the first big match tonight. Record number of chances, but now we need goals

ZINGONIA – What unites Inter and Atalanta, on the pitch tonight at San Siro for the first big match of the championship, is a credit. It has nothing to do with the numbers, it’s a matter of goals. The two Nerazzurre from Lombardy in the first two days of the championship should have scored more than two goals per game. This is what the XG data says, the expected goals, that is to say those clear occasions that, according to a probabilistic calculation, should be transformed into numbers on the scoreboard at the end of the game. No team has more expected goals than Atalanta in this championship so far: 4.9 in ninety minutes plus injury time. Inter follows, with 4.4. And it is no coincidence that the bettors predict that the match at the Meazza will end “all to all”, to put it in English.

Nobody creates chances like the Nerazzurre

So watch out for the scorers. Including Lautaro Martinez, who hasn’t scored in his stadium since February 28, against Atalanta. The Inter captain is in an advanced stage of recovery from the muscle problem that kept him out of action in the match won by Inzaghi’s team against Lecce. He could start alongside Thuram, or replace Taremi on the bench. In ten matches against the Bergamo team, Toro has had a hand in eight goals: six goals and two assists. In Atalanta – the only team in Serie A to have had at least one defender, one midfielder and one forward score – Retegui is the one to be watched closely. Gasperini said of the Italian-Argentine in a press conference: “He scored two extraordinary goals. They are not two casual goals (on his debut against Lecce, ed.), the team must take advantage of his qualities, he is not a player who only plays with his head, he has good shooting ability”.

Inter are waiting for Lautaro

If Inzaghi is waiting for captain Lautaro to get going, and in the last real useful training session he mixed up the cards by trying out Carlos Augusto and the new arrival Zielinski as starters, for Atalanta the taboo to break is much heavier. “Since I’ve been here we’ve never won at San Siro, but there’s always a first time. Inter are a very strong team, it’s something we share with many teams”, said Gasp. Then in reference to the open transfer market with the championship underway, which he has always opposed, he added polemically: “It’s a game that comes too soon, with all the ups and downs, against a team that won the championship. After the match in Turin I said that we were thirteen short of the final in Dublin. This doesn’t mean that we played with ten men, I thought I said something quite clearly. You can tell me anything except that I’m in bad faith”.

Atalanta still in the middle of the market

Atalanta are still in the middle of the transfer market, with Gasperini joking that “I still expect five or six new players,” announcing that Zaniolo will not be available and admitting that “Lookman was a problem.” If Inter are almost done – the complicated issue of signing the 21-year-old Argentine defender Palacios, whose contract is shared by Independiente and Talleres, is also being resolved – in Bergamo the team is still under construction after Koopmeiners’ departure to Juventus, a €60 million deal that Gasperini found satisfying for all parties: “The player achieved what he wanted, and he gave us a lot. Everyone is happy, Juve is, he is and Atalanta is too. Everyone lived happily ever after.” This does not mean that the hot weeks of the transfer market have not left their mark on Zingonia: “Until July 10 I lived everything very well, then there was the heat, which was quite heavy. Another season will begin tomorrow.” A season without any more transfers (at least incoming ones) that Atalanta wants to start by breaking the San Siro taboo and that Inter would like to approach with three points, precious to respond to Juventus, who so far have not left a single point on the road.