Where the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kharkiv oblast in the north-east was agile, swift and effective, mudslides characterize Ukraine’s advance into Kherson in the south.
The Russians call the autumn season “rasputsitsaWhich can be translated as “without roads”.
BAD LEADER: The mud and heavy rains put a strain on the mobility of both Russians and Ukrainians. Photo: YEVHEN TITOV / AFP
– It is the rainy season and it is very difficult to use tanks on wheels, said Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov during a Press conference Wednesday 26 October.
Is Russia on track to stop the Ukrainian counter-offensive?
He will kick the Russians out
Tom Røseth, chief intelligence lecturer at the Norwegian Defense Academy, says things are going slower for Ukrainians in Kherson County than in Kharkiv.
THE DEFENSES: Tom Røseth is the principal intelligence teacher at the Norwegian Defense Academy. Photo: Odd Arne Hartvigsen / TV 2
At the same time, he says there is movement at the southern front, probably more than is coming to light. Despite the difficult conditions, you will see changes along the front line before winter arrives, Røseth believes.
– Ukrainians are not satisfied until they completely drive the Russians out of the city of Kherson.
There are many indications that the Russians are ready to withdraw from Kherson, according to the defense expert, while the Ukrainians want to use the room for maneuver before the arrival of the recently mobilized Russian forces.
The most important events in Kherson:
- Numerous Russian defense operations against Ukrainian targets are underway along the Dnipro River. If Russian forces are expelled from the region, many fear they will blow up the Nova Kakhovka Dam on the Dnipro River, which will lead to floods of 80 Ukrainian cities.
- In the strategically important city of Kherson it was reinforced with 1,000 other Russian soldiers, says the Ukrainian general staff, according to Radio Europe free.
- For several days, Russia has been terrorizing Ukrainian cities with Iranian-made kamikaze drones.
Russian defensive line
Everything suggests that Russia underestimated the need for soldiers when it escalated its invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Although the Kremlin has now carried out a partial mobilization of Russian civilians with a military background, it is unclear to what extent the new soldiers strengthen Russia’s fighting power.
– Will Russia now be able to establish a line of defense?
– They try, but with inexperienced soldiers. It may not have the effect Russia intended, Røseth replies.
INTENSE FIGHTING: The map, produced by ISW, shows that there have been several intense fighting in the areas between Mykolaiv and Kherson counties in Ukraine. Photo: Tankesmien Institute of Study of War (ISW)
He believes we won’t be able to see an effect of mobilization until past winter:
– The fact that they send people to the front without proper winter training and equipment can lead to little combat power and big problems, continues Røseth. He adds that Russia has also been unable to establish a safe and stable supply line at the front.
– Logistics is not a sexy branch of defense, but it is incredibly important and the Russians have failed.
An insatiable need
Mobile, high-tech and lethal weapons such as Stinger and Javelin missiles, as well as less mobile HIMARS rocket launchers, are among the Western weapon systems that made a difference on the ground in Ukraine – in favor of the Ukrainian forces.
– There is a great need and the Americans and the British in particular are doing well there, says Røseth. Also Germany has stepped up aid with weapons.
Since February 24, the United States, one of Kiev’s most important allies, has donated $ 18 billion worth of weapons, ammunition and equipment, according to the United States. Minister of Foreign Affairs.
HIMARS: A US High Mobility Artillery Missile System (HIMARS) M142 launches a missile, HIMARS is one of several weapon systems that the US has donated to Ukraine. Photo: Aaron Favila
A total of 50 countries made humanitarian and military contributions to Ukraine, including Norway.
Despite strong support from the West, Ukrainian authorities say the need for weapons and ammunition is still desperate. According to Tom Røseth, there is a natural explanation; ammunition runs out quickly in war, while military equipment wears out quickly.
– I just don’t know if the delivery is good enough, but it is clear that the need is insatiable, so it will never be good enough, Røseth points out:
– It is important that arms and ammunition deliveries continue at a rapid pace.
Completely unthinkable for Ukraine
On several occasions we have witnessed diplomatic flashes between the Kiev authorities and the Kremlin.
Among other things, the agreement on grain exports, the exchange of prisoners of war, the evacuation of civilians – including from Mariupol – and occasional telephone conversations between Putin and Zelenskii.
Throughout the autumn, hope for a diplomatic solution faded as Russian leader Vladimir Putin canceled Ukraine’s independence to a greater extent.
PRESIDENT: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly promised to regain all the Ukrainian land occupied by Russia. Photo: Pantry / UKRAINE PRESIDENCY / AFP
The annexation of the four Ukrainian oblasts of Kherson, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhya and Donetsk and Luhansk on September 30, and the Kremlin’s request that the oblasts be recognized as Russian in a peace agreement, have helped to stifle all diplomatic communication – which does not take place on closed lines.
– Will we be able to reach a point where the war has cost the parties so much that they reassess their war targets – and where these targets have been lowered enough to reopen diplomatic channels?
– The Kremlin is giving some signals now, where they say they want peace negotiations. In fact, this is according to the demands of Russia, where the annexed lands are recognized as Russian, Røseth replies.
And he states:
– It is a completely unthinkable peace agreement for Ukraine.
