SCOTT RITTER, US INTELLIGENCE OFFICER
For months, the world has focused on the threat of nuclear war between the United States and Russia, but Iran and Israel could get ahead of it.
he is The conflict between Iran and Israel appears to have changed Iran’s stance against having nuclear weapons, with Israel preparing to strike after Tehran retaliated with two major strikes using drones and ballistic and cruise missiles.
Iran has issued at least three statements through official channels since April that have opened the door to the possibility of revoking religious decrees that barred Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
The conditions that Iran says must exist to justify this change now appear to have been met.
These statements issued by Tehran are not just threats; They should be seen as a political statement indicating that Iran has already decided to acquire nuclear weapons, that the means to do so are already available, and that this decision can be implemented side by side. within days after the final political order was issued.
The fat a religious decree against the possession of nuclear weapons was issued in October 2003 by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. dice So:
“We believe that the proliferation of nuclear weapons and other types of weapons of mass destruction, such as chemical and biological weapons, pose a serious threat to humanity… “The effort to protect humanity from this catastrophe is a duty on everyone.”
However, the Shia religion maintains that lit fatwas They are not necessarily permanent and Islamic jurists can reinterpret the scriptures according to the needs of the moment.
Shortly after launching Iran True Promise Action against Israel in April, Ahmad Haghtalab, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responsible for the security of Iran’s nuclear facilities, confirmed :
“And [Israel] wants to take advantage of the threat of an attack on our country’s nuclear facilities as a tool to put pressure on Iran, it is possible and possible to review the nuclear doctrine and policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran from the previously mentioned considerations.”
In May, Kamal Kharrazi, who was the foreign minister who was advising the Supreme Commander, confirmed : “We [Irán] “We do not have the decision to build a nuclear bomb, but if Iran is threatened, there will be no other option but to change our military doctrine.”
Earlier this month, Iranian lawmakers they asked for a review of Iran’s defense doctrine to consider adopting nuclear weapons, as the threat of escalation by Israel continues to rise.
The lawmakers noted that the Director General could reconsider the fat against nuclear weapons on the grounds that circumstances have changed.
These statements, taken together, are a form of positive politics which, given the sources involved, means that a political decision has already been made to build a nuclear bomb once the national security risk criterion is met.
The ability is
For some time now, Iran has had the ability to make its own nuclear devices and weapons. Using highly enriched uranium, Iran could in a few days build a simple cannon weapon that could be used as a ballistic missile warhead.
In June, Iran told the IAEA it was installing about 1,400 advanced centrifuges at its Fordow facility. Based on calculations derived from reserves of 60 percent enriched uranium hexafluoride (the raw material used in centrifugal enrichment), Iran could produce highly enriched uranium (ie, over 90 percent) to produce three to five uranium-based weapons in a few days. .
All that is needed is the political will to do it. It seems that Iran has crossed that threshold, meaning that the calculus underlying an Israeli or American attack on Iran has changed forever.
Iran has not hidden this new reality. In February, the former head of the Atomic Energy Agency, Ali-Akbar Salehi, confirmed that Iran had crossed “the nuclear scientific and technological thresholds” to build a nuclear bomb, and noted that Iran had assembled all the components necessary for a nuclear weapon, except uranium very rich.
Two weeks later, Javad Karimi Ghodousi, a member of the National Security Commission of the Iranian Parliament, confirmed that If the superintendent “gives permission, we would be a week away from trying the first [bomba nuclear]”, later saying that Iran “needs at most a week to build a nuclear warhead. “
A simple nuclear weapon would not require a cannon to be tested: the “Little Boy” device dropped on Hiroshima by the United States on August 6, 1945 was a cannon-type device that was considered so reliable that it could be used operationally without any previous test.
Iran would need between 34 and 54 kilograms of highly enriched uranium for each gun (the more sophisticated the design, the less material needed). At least, payload of The Fatah-1 solid fuel hypersonic missile, which was used in the October 1 attack on Israel, weighs about 400 kilos, more than enough capacity to carry a cannon uranium weapon.
Since the ballistic missile shield covering Israel could not intercept the Fatah-1 missile, if Iran were to build, deploy and employ a nuclear-armed Fatah-1 missile against Israel, almost 100 percent sure to hit its target. .
Iran would need between three and five such nuclear weapons to completely destroy Israel’s ability to function as a modern industrial nation.
Implications for withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal
This situation occurred after President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2017, better known as the Iran nuclear deal. The main reason behind the JCPOA negotiations, which took place during the presidency of Barack Obama, was to close Iran’s path to nuclear weapons. As Obama said :
“Simply put, under this agreement, there is a permanent ban on Iran’s nuclear weapons program and a permanent surveillance system that goes further than any previous surveillance system in Iran.”
This agreement allows the IAEA to ensure that Iran does not do so, both through the JCPOA’s special verification tools, some of which last up to 25 years, and through the Additional Protocol which lasts indefinitely. In addition, Iran made commitments in this deal that include a ban on key research and development activities it would need to design and build nuclear weapons. “These commitments have no expiration date.”
Early in his administration, in June 2021, after Trump had already withdrawn the United States from the agreement, President Joe Biden said confirmed that Iran would not have nuclear weapons “under my rule.”
The director of National Intelligence of the United States said in report announced on October 11 that “we assess that the Director General has not decided to restart the nuclear weapons program that Iran suspended in 2003. “
After Trump’s quick decision to withdraw from the JCPOA, Iran took steps to indicate that it did not feel constrained by any of the JCPOA’s restrictions.
Iran has expanded its nuclear program by installing advanced cascades of centrifuges used to enrich uranium and has had its nuclear program inspected by the International Atomic Energy Agency -national (IAEA). In short, Iran has positioned itself to produce nuclear weapons in short order.
Although the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) currently believes that the Director-General has not made that political decision, an assessment published in July includes an omission that was made from previous assessments of Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
The February 2024 ODNI assessment he noted that “Iran is not currently conducting the major nuclear weapons development activities necessary to produce an experimental nuclear device. “
However, this statement did not appear in the July 2024 assessment, a clear indication that the US intelligence community, largely due to the reduction of IAEA monitoring activities, does not know the critical technical aspects of Iran’s nuclear energy-related industries. .
Senator Lindsey Graham, after reading the classified version of the July 2024 ODNI report on Iran, said that he was “very concerned” that Iran “will have a nuclear weapon in the coming weeks or months.”
What is the opposite of the United States and Israel?
This is the situation facing Israel and the United States as they decide Israel’s retaliation against Iran for the October 1 missile attack.
Iran has stated that any attack on its nuclear or oil and gas production capabilities would be considered critical in nature, which could lead to the revocation of the fat and the use of nuclear weapons within days of that decision being made.
President Joe Biden to reporters on Friday that he knows when and where Israel will attack, but declined to say so. Information documents Americans have gone out in the last few days showed the limits of America’s knowledge of exactly what Israel intends to do.
The United States and Israel have long argued that a nuclear-armed Iran was a red line that could not be crossed without dire consequences, namely a major military intervention designed to fundamentally to destroy Iran’s nuclear structure.
That line was crossed: Iran is a nuclear power In fact, even if you haven’t taken the final steps to finish building a nuclear bomb.
The consequences of an Iranian attack could be fatal for the attackers and possibly the entire region.
