Institutional research and selection | The rise in U.S. bond yields may be coming to an end and is expected to become a catalyst for rising gold prices

On Tuesday, Fed Governors Waller and Bowman released dovish messages, and the two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell more than 20% during the session.15basis points, the U.S. dollar index fell103to the lowest in three and a half months.overnightCOMEX 12Monthly gold futures close higher27.60dollar, gain1.4%report2040The U.S. dollar rose for four consecutive days to5A six-month high since mid-month.todayGold’s strong rise is mainly due to two factors. First, unpredictable events in the macro situation have led to a rapid increase in market risk aversion; second, the counterattack of many parties has given them the opportunity to leave the market through rising prices.The organization believes thatThe rise in U.S. bond yields may be coming to an end and is expected to serve as a catalyst for rising gold prices.

Basic metals: There is no obvious price driver in the short term, and basic metals remain low and fluctuate.

1）Copper: Copper prices remained low and fluctuated during the week, and overseas macro markets were still in a bearish environment, but fundamentals supported copper prices. On the supply side, the country is in a period of high production and the import profit window has opened, with high growth expectations. On the demand side, the recycled copper market is sluggish due to the low price difference between refined and scrap. After copper prices stabilized, downstream demand improved, and the consumption of refined copper rods exceeded expectations.Electrolytic copper spot stocks fell during the week2.010,000 tons to9.9Thousands of tons.

2）Aluminum: Aluminum prices remained volatile during the week, and supply-side electrolytic aluminum companies maintained stable production, with current operating capacity of4298Thousands of tons, Inner Mongolia plans to release new production capacity at the end of the month; demand-side aluminum rod and aluminum plate companies have different reductions and resumptions of production, and the overall demand has changed slightly compared with the previous month.The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate in the early part of this week. As the downstream gradually resumed production and shifted to destocking, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly during the week.0.210,000 tons to59Thousands of tons.

Precious metals: Risk aversion continues to ferment, gold prices rise sharply

Supported by risk aversion,comexGold prices continue to rebound to1993.1Dollar/ounce.Previously released in the United States9Monthly retail sales data,9Month-on-month retail sales+0.7%less than the previous value correction value+0.8%but higher than expected+0.3%. Strong retail sales data showed that consumer demand was better than expected, which may trigger market expectations for a rebound in inflation.Powell’s speech to the Economic Club of New York on Thursday did not rule out further interest rate hikes due to too good data, but also emphasized that risks and rising bond yields have tightened financial conditions. He also pointed out that rising bond yields may mean that more interest rates are not needed. rest, after speakingCMEofFedWatchTool shows what the market thinks11There will be no interest rate increase in the month and12The probability of no interest rate hike increases. The situation in the Middle East continues to ferment, and the Minister of Defense said that he will soon issue an order to launch an attack on the Gaza Strip. In addition, Iran stated that if the Israeli army continues to attack Gaza, other parties may join the war. The rising situation in the Middle East has catalyzed a surge in gold prices.

Minor metals: Shanghai and tin fluctuate, and short-term supply and demand drive is limited

Shanghai Xileku377tons, the month-long trend of continuous destocking has reversed. We believe that there are two main reasons for the reversal on the demand side. First, the reserve inventory of the gold and nine industries has increased, and the demand for silver ten reserves has declined without sustained positive feedback on demand; second, the tin price has continued to rise to a certain extent last week. This has dampened the willingness to purchase and replenish the inventory, resulting in overstocking. The supply-side drivers are also mixed with bulls and bears in the short term, making it difficult to draw conclusions.9Domestic refined tin output in March compared with the same period last year2.2%although domestic9Tin ore was imported from several Wuwu mines in Myanmar’s Wa State in March. However, due to the buffering of mineral processing stocks in Myanmar’s Wa State and domestic inventories, the impact on supply is still within a controllable range. After the completion of the technical transformation of Yinman Mining, a subsidiary of Xingye Silver Tin, there will be an increase in tin ore. appeared, so the core of the supply-side contradiction is still the length of the Wa State’s suspension of production.In the short term, the supply and demand drivers of tin prices are weak, and tin prices may still remain stable.21-22The range of 10,000 has fluctuated for a period of time.

(Source: Tianfeng Securities, Guojin Securities)

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