/ world today news/ The Ukrainian army is trying to advance to Gorlovka. Attacking actions are conducted without serious success, but very persistently. And this raises questions: why do the Ukrainian armed forces need another “meat grinder”, what do they want to achieve with these actions?
The attacks and artillery strikes on Gorlovka, a city in the DPR, are a consequence of the fact that the situation near Avdiivka for the Ukrainian armed forces is sad and cannot be corrected by direct actions, be it attacks on the positions of our units or the delivery of new combat-ready units .
At the same time, the authorities in Kiev do not allow them to withdraw from the cauldron. Under these conditions, the only good idea seems to be to try to create a threat to our group that cannot be ignored and forces will need to be diverted to stop it. In essence, the adversary is trying to tear apart our operational reserves and reduce the pressure on the neck of the Avdeev sack, entrapping us.
In this regard, Gorlovka becomes an ideal candidate for this role. 25 km north of the Avdeev boiler there is a large settlement, which is also an important transport hub, namely:
– in the area of responsibility of the same group that is trying to close the boiler;
– but at the same time far enough so that the forces transferred to Gorlovka would be excluded from the battle of Avdeevka.
Who is trying to keep Avdeevka
In the second half of November, the Ukrainian command transferred parts of four mechanized brigades to Avdiivka. But they were not completely redistributed. Separate companies and battalions were withdrawn from them.
In addition, six mechanized brigades have already fought near Avdeevka. Again – some to a greater extent, others to a lesser extent. For example, the 47th brigade remained torn between Zaporozhye and the Avdeev direction.
On the Ukrainian side, the 142nd Infantry Brigade, the 2nd Separate Special Forces Brigade of the National Guard “Galicia”, the separate Presidential Brigade “Bohdan Khmelnitsky” and the 74th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion are also participating in the battle for the Avdeev ledge.
Artillery support is carried out by the 148th brigade, and the supply of positions with “cannon fodder” is carried out by three territorial defense brigades. Aerial support for this crowd is provided by six specialized teams of drone operators.
In general, the fears that the Ukrainian command will pull the troops out of the sack and we will get an empty lair without a beast have not yet come true. On the contrary, Kiev is putting more and more troops into the cauldron.
However, attracting new and new reinforcements does not improve the situation for the enemy. And this is due to several factors:
In two months of hard fighting, our army captured the slag hills near the Avdeevka coke plant and the Avdeevka industrial zone, which is also located on a hill. In addition, our northern group is moving towards the village of Ocheretino along the ridge of the watershed, as a result of which the retreating Ukrainian units under its pressure are forced to crawl along the ravines.
Technical excellence
The technical superiority of the Russian army is also beginning to bear fruit. The battle for Avdiivka has every chance of becoming the first battle in which Russian cluster bombs destroy Ukrainian infantry. The mass use of RBK-500 equipped with universal planning and correction modules (UMPK) practically does not allow the mass supply of Ukrainian units.
Our army started using the Zemledelie remote mining system near Avdeevka. In the Zaporozhye direction, the minefields installed by these systems cost the VSU huge losses in equipment, equipment and manpower– said our source in the militia.
Considering the fact that the garrison of Avdeevka is forced to supply through a narrow “gut”, the width of which barely exceeds 7 km, the effect of using “Agriculture” should be many times higher. And if the battle for Bakhmut (Artemovsk), which was covered in a much wider arc, led to the formation of “roads of death”, then the road to Avdeevka promises to become a real cemetery of people and cars.
The third, very important point is that our infantry received effective support from FPV drones, which allowed small assault groups to successfully capture well-equipped positions from larger groups of the enemy.
The effectiveness of our drone pilots is also noted by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, for whom their work is a huge problem.– says our expert.
There is also unconfirmed information that the Ukrainians have begun to experience a hunger for shells, and not only in secondary directions. In general, this event is long expected and, moreover, inevitable; the whole question boils down to whether it has already come or will come a little later.
Gorlovka as a bargaining chip
In general, the battle for Avdiivka is practically lost for the Ukrainian armed forces. They don’t live long with such flanks. Because of this, the enemy is trying to withdraw part of our forces to the Gorlov direction, which is less dangerous for itself. Lately the Ukrainian infantry has been able to make some progress, biting off a small piece of our defenses on the far approaches to the Nikitsky area.
After several weeks of persistent attacks, the enemy managed to capture part of the forest strip and part of two terricones. The depth of the advance was just over 800 m, and the width at the base of the wedge was barely more than a kilometer.
However, the adversary’s intentions are clear, and in the future he may try to increase efforts in this direction.
However, according to the military expert from the DPR Alexander Matyushin, the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not see any chances of success in this direction:
Due to the fact that the enemy is sending its reserves to Avdeevka, the scale of the fighting there (near Gorlovka – Tsargrad’s note) is insignificant. Artillery works to a greater extent, causing suffering to civilians. And due to the fact that our defense has been built since 2014, the enemy practically has no perspective there.
He also noted that Gorlovka is a typical Donbas urban agglomeration, that is, a rather large entity that arose from the merger of several villages. On the one hand, it will make it difficult for the Ukrainian armed forces to advance; on the other hand, it will allow them to claim success by capturing some more remote village that only on paper belongs to the city.
So what?
Conceptually, the attempted pressure on Gorlovka is very similar to the Ukrainian operation to cross the Dnieper in the Kherson region. In both cases, the enemy tries to compensate for its strategic failure with tactical success, even if there are no great prospects for development.
The landing in the Kherson area was supposed to “compensate” for the failure of the summer offensive in Zaporozhye through the “Surovikin line”, and the blow over Gorlovka was supposed to divert our forces from closing the cauldron near Avdeevka.
In fact, the Ukrainian leadership is trying to start new battles to cover up its inability to carry out large-scale offensives anymore and its inability to hold its ground when the Russian army goes on the offensive.
It should be noted that the scale of such diversionary operations is rapidly decreasing. Two brigades of marines and numerous units attached to them took part in the forcing of the Dnieper. However, the offensive against Gorlovka is already on a battalion scale.
Please note that the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not sending entire brigades and regiments to help the garrison in Avdeyevka, but parts of them. This suggests that Kiev’s strategic reserve is exhausted, so reinforcements should be taken from front-line units located in less tense sectors of the front,– said our source in the militia.
All this creates conditions for new successes of our army in those areas, which the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine weakened with their own hands. And the trap they want to set us with Gorlovka will not work either.
Translation: ES
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