Barring last-minute surprises, a new rate cut is now a given
by the ECB at its meeting on 17 October. Facile.it estimated that, if the Eurotower were to scissor
the indices by 25 basis points, in the coming months the installment of a standard variable mortgage* should fall by approximately
18 euro.
The installments continue to fall, albeit gradually; thanks to the ECB’s cuts in 2024 the drop for one
standard mortgage was just over 36 euros, but the good news is that the indices should
continue to decrease in the coming months; analyzing the trend of 3-month Euribor Futures
(updated to 7 October 2024), Facile.it has calculated that the installments could drop by around 38 euros within
first months of 2025 and, overall, of around 95 euros by the end of next year.
Data in hand, therefore, the standard mortgage installment indicated above would go from 714 euros in October 2024
to 676 euros at the beginning of 2025, reaching around 620 euros at the end of next year.
Wait for the decline or try to substitute?
If, as mentioned, the prospect of variable rates is to continue to decline over the next year, an opportunity
The fastest way to reduce the installment is represented by subrogation.
By analyzing the best offers* of subrogation rates available online, Facile.it has highlighted that, always for
a standard mortgage, the TAN indices start from 2.79%, with an installment of 584 euros (values that drop
even at 2.64%, installment 565 euros, in the case of a “green mortgage”).
Data in hand, therefore, by substituting the variable mortgage indicated above today we would switch from a variable installment
of 714 euros at a fixed installment of 584 euros, with a saving of approximately 130 euros.
«The banks in this phase of the market are offering really interesting fixed subrogation rates and this
it represents an opportunity not only for those who have a variable mortgage and want to switch to a fixed one, thus reducing the cost
the installment and blocking it for the rest of the repayment plan, but also for those who already have a
fixed loan subscribed at less advantageous conditions than the current ones”, they explain
Facile.it experts.
Suffice it to say that, for example, just 12 months ago the best fixed rates for a standard mortgage
they started from a TAN of around 3.80% with an installment of around 650 euros, while today, as mentioned, the rates
subrogation starts from an installment of 584 euros.
Who chooses a mortgage today: fixed or variable better?
Although, in general, there is no absolute right or wrong choice between fixed and variable rates, in
at this moment the market conditions are clearly in favor of landlines.
Looking at the best fixed rate offers available online for a standard mortgage, the TANs start from
2.79%, with an installment of 584 euros. For variable rates, however, the best offers start from a TAN equal to
4.10%, with an initial installment of around 665 euros and a difference of around 80 euros compared to the best offer at
fixed rate.
Although decreasing, therefore, variable prices today are still superior to fixed ones; choose a variable mortgage now
it would mean starting with a higher instalment, in the hope that thanks to the ECB’s next cuts this will be the case
can fall and beat, in the long term, the fixed one.
