The search Question/Genial of voting intention for the first round of 2022 presidential elections released this Wednesday (8) shows the former president Lula (PT) leading with 46% against 23% of the current president, Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
In the fight for third position, Sergio Moro (We can) appears in front of Ciro Gomes (PDT), with 10% of voting intentions. Cyrus has 5%. João Doria (PSDB) appears with 2% and Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD), with 1%.
In another scenario where Doria and Pacheco do not participate in the election, the former justice minister of Bolsonaro goes up one point, adding up to 11% of voting intentions. In this scenario, Lula and Bolsonaro also increase one point, reaching 47% and 24% respectively.
In a scenario without Moro and Doria, Lula reached 48%, Bolsonaro reached 27%, Ciro Gomes reached 8% and Rodrigo Pacheco reached 2%.
In the event that Doria participates and Moro and Pacheco stay out, Lula gets 47%, Bolsonaro, 27%, Ciro goes to 7% and Doria gets 5% of voting intentions.
The institute did not include a scenario with Simone Tebet (MDB-MS), who was made official this Wednesday (8) as MDB candidate for the presidency.
second shift
In a second round, Lula wins in all scenarios, and Bolsonaro loses to all the main competitors.
A dispute with Bolsonaro would have the PT with 55% of the votes against 31% of the current president.
In an eventual runoff with Moro, Lula adds 53% of the votes against 29% of the former minister.
A scenario in which Lula and Ciro Gomes face each other points to a victory by the PT from 54% to 21%.
In a confrontation between Lula and Doria in the second round, the PT would win by 57% to 14%.
Against Pacheco, Lula has an advantage of 58% to 13%.
Without Lula in a second round, a dispute between Moro and Bolsonaro has a slight advantage over the former Lava Jato judge, who would win by 34% to 31%, according to the poll.
Bolsonaro would also lose if the opponent were Ciro Gomes, with 39% for Ciro and 34% for the President of the Republic.
government approval
Bolsonaro managed to curb the fall in popularity with increased government approval among key audiences, the poorest, who earn up to two minimum wages, and among evangelicals.
Among the poorest, the gap in failure and approval, which was negative 45 points in November, dropped to 36 points this month. With regard to evangelicals, the difference between those who disapproved of the Bolsonaro government and those who approved was 15 percentage points and now it is 3 points.
The perception is that the government managed to reverse the drop in popularity with two main moves, according to Felipe Nunes, director of Quaest. “The announcement of the new R$400 Brazilian Aid, which will benefit the poorest, generated a sense of hope in this audience; in addition to the appointment and approval of the new minister of the Supreme Court, André Mendonça, who is evangelical”, he analyzed.
Methodology
The survey, commissioned by Genial Investimentos and carried out by the consulting firm Quaest, interviewed 2,037 people in face-to-face interviews between December 2nd and 5th. The confidence level is 95%, with a maximum margin of error of 2%, up or down, in relation to the total sample.
Carried out in each of the 27 units of the federation, the survey combines household collection with modeling in post-stratification, that is, with adjustment of the weights of the answers after collecting the information.
According to Quaest, post-stratification allows “to reduce the chances of selection and non-response bias”.
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