Inflation slows down, falling to 0.9% in April. In the Eurozone stuck at 2.4%

MILANO – Inflation is still slowing down in Italy, remaining stable in the Eurozone. These are the data, highly awaited by observers because they can give important indications to the European Central Bank in view of the probable rate cut in June, which emerge from the provisional estimates of Istat and Eurostat

Prices in Italy

“In April, according to preliminary estimates, inflation will fall again, reaching 0.9%”, we read in the press release from the National Institute of Statistics. This is therefore a slowdown compared to 1.2%. annual rate recorded in March. 0.9% in April is also a slightly lower figure than the expectation of Unicredit analysts, who in the morning – before the official release of Istat – indicated a probable +1%. deceleration is mostly affected by the trend dynamics of commodity prices Unregulated energy goods (-13.9% from -10.3% in March) and of Transport related services (+2.9% from +4.5%). Prices also slowed slightly Food goods (+2.6% from +2.7%)”, explains Istat again. “On the other hand – he adds – the prices of Regulated energy goods show a strong trend recovery (+0.8% from -13.8%), despite the economic downturn (-8.2%)”.

Istat, GDP beats expectations: growth of 0.3% in the first quarter

April 30, 2024

The monthly price change is indicated at 0.2%.

If we look at the so-called “core inflation”, the one that excludes the most volatile items such as energy and fresh food, the slowdown in the annual variation is from +2.3% to +2.2%. The descent also continues “shopping cart” which goes to +2.4% from +2.6%.

Prices in the Eurozone

The Eurozone data, however, is in line with expectations in Eurostat’s flash estimate it was 2.4%, the same level recorded in March. If energy, food, alcohol and tobacco are excluded, price growth moderates from 2.9% in March to 2.7%, slightly above the forecast of +2.6%.

For a homogeneous comparison with other countries, for Italy it is necessary to use the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) which increases by 0.6% on a monthly basis, due to the end of seasonal sales, of which the main index (NIC) does not take into account, which partly continued into March, and 1.0% on an annual basis (from +1.2% in the previous month).

The costs of flights and hotels

Commenting on the price data in Italy, the Codacons notes that the eff is “finished”.etto Easter” which had led to a rise in price lists with significant increases especially in the transport sector”. However, the fall in inflation “cannot be said to be satisfactory” and indeed for the association “retail prices not only must not increase, but should fall, registering a negative sign”. The National Consumers Union points the finger precisely at the growth in prices “which affects those who want to take days off.” says Massimiliano Dona, president of the National Consumers Union. “Very worrying increases in anticipation of the upcoming summer holidays”, says Lthe association that puts you at the top ten of monthly increases Hotels, motels and guesthouses That respect a March they score and astronomical leap of 9.8%. Silver medal for International flights That they take off in just 30 days dell‘8.5% (on average passenger air transport rises of the 7,2%) e it’s not much better for the International holiday packagesin sixth place with +4.7%.

According to the president of Coop Marco Pedroni, “despite today’s data confirming a slowdown in inflation and a timid acceleration in GDP growth, Italians are struggling to perceive an improvement in the country’s economic conditions”. In fact, the Coop research office calculates that the delta between “perceived and measured inflation, in 2024 it could be around 9 percentage points (+1.3% that expected in statistical measurements and +10.3% that perceived), as if Italians had lost in about a year 3600 euros per family”. From the Federdistribuzione it is underlined that “in the coming months it will be important to recover a climate of confidence that can help restore impetus to consumption, which is fundamental both for the stability of the national economy and for the growth of businesses”.