On Thursday it is possible to check the effectiveness of the actions taken so far by the authorities. In 10, the final and detailed report on the August price increase is expected to be published.
Economists, who initially predicted a drop in inflation from 15.6% to 15.4%, are eagerly awaiting the presentation. They were very wrongbo a preliminary estimate by the Central Statistical Office two weeks ago indicated a fairly noticeable acceleration in rate hikes to 16.1%. Every year.
The rest of the article is below the video
Read also in BUSINESS INSIDER
–
Time for the final conclusion
At 10, the Central Statistical Office will announce precisely what and how much has become more expensive. It will come out where economists have made the biggest forecast errors.
The question is, won’t the officials surprise this time? History shows that there are no major differences between the estimate and the final CSO data. If there is any adjustment, it is usually not greater than +/- 0.1 percentage points.
Rather, the economists we interviewed expect confirmation of the previous 16.1 percent. The result of the order of 15.9 or 16.3 percent. it could only happen in an extreme case.
Price prediction is a growing lottery
It is worth noting that it was not the first time that the experts’ predictions significantly lacked the hard data that followed. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, only once did the consensus of economists coincide with the final reading of inflation in the Central Statistical Office. In all other cases, the rate of price growth was a negative surprise. It was particularly visible in March and April.
Economists admit it inflation is currently one of the most difficult macroeconomic indicators to predict. Due to the consequences of the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, many components of the truck are subject to very large changes, often even from week to week (as was the case recently, for example, with coal prices).
How have economists commented on the recent prognostic failure? – We fell victim to the optimistic July inflation data. Then the indicator stopped at the previous month’s level. It turned out that our downward revisions to the forecast were premature – admits Marcin Klucznik, analyst at the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) in an interview with Business Insider.
He adds that the large discrepancy in the August data can be explained by the overlap of several issues. One of the most important is the price of food.
– The biggest surprise was the unusually large increase in food prices. From one month to the next it jumped by an average of 1.6%. this is one of the biggest increases this time of year. In August, food was usually cheaper seasonally – notes Monika Kurtek, chief economist of Bank Pocztowy, in an interview with Business Insider.
He points out that as early as July it was clear that food prices would behave differently this summer. He admits that he will be following the statistics for the next few months with interest. It is worth pointing out food is the most important element of the basket on the basis of which the Central Statistical Office calculates inflation. It has about 26 percent. To share.
The second most important element is the prices related to the use of the apartment. They are responsible for nearly 20 percent. the basket of inflation. Marcin Klucznik in this context draws attention to energy prices. On the one hand, we have dynamic changes in the price lists in coal depots. On the other hand, very different tariffs in heatingwhich are established practically separately for specific cities. Economists have a lot of trouble keeping track of all this.
Experts also point out this unexpected rise in core inflation, which are linked, among others, with prices in a widely understood statement. In August there was a movement in business in relation to the new school year.
The next few months are under a question mark
We should receive preliminary inflation data for September in the next two weeks. It is too early for more accurate predictions. However, one thing can be certain: uncertainty.
– I fear it will be very difficult to estimate inflation by the end of the year. We can see surprises more than once. Even the negative ones – admits Monika Kurtek.
Bank economist Pocztowy expects, among other things, increases in the “education” category. The question of what will happen to food prices remains open. It will not be cheaper, but the magnitude of the increases is difficult to predict.
Kurtek is also prepared for dynamic changes in energy commodity prices, although government intervention and freezing of tariffs can be expected. In addition, there will be cyclical corrections in the company price lists. The economist observes it such uncertainty on the market as now has not existed for years.
Author: Damian Słomski, reporter for Business Insider Polska
–
