Inflation expectations heat up, raw materials rise, and the commodity index approaches an eight-year high | Anue Juheng-Energy

Expectations of rising inflation will drive the rise of raw materials ranging from crude oil, copper to corn, and the commodity index is approaching an eight-year high.

The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which tracks the prices of 23 raw materials, rose 1.6% on Monday (22nd), reaching the highest point since March 2013.The index rebounded 67% from the four-year low reached in March last year, indicating that the government’s heavy spending and central banks’ ultra-low interest rates may boost inflation and causeUSDThe weakening is prompting hedge funds to buy raw materials. The optimistic level is the highest in at least a decade.

Copper was the raw material with the most significant increase on Monday, and the price of copper exceeded 9,000 per metric ton on Monday. USD, For the first time in nine years. Other industrial raw materials including iron ore and nickel also rose.

Oil prices also rose sharply due to the possible rapid contraction of global supply. West Texas crude oil futures rose more than 4%, and Brent also rose 3.8%. In addition, coffee and raw sugar prices have risen.

Bart Melek, head of TD Securities’ raw materials strategy department, said: “People have ignored raw materials for some time and are now starting to deploy. This situation may continue for some time. The main driving force is the expectation of supply shortages.”

JP Morgan Chase (Xiao Mo) stated earlier this month that commodities appear to have embarked on a “super cycle” and will remain at prices well above the long-term trend for a period of time. Brokerage firms such as Goldman Sachs pointed out that commodities may welcome the impressive gains that have only occurred four times in the past century.

The rise in commodities is not only seen as an asset to avoid inflation risks, but may also be an unexpected result of the fight against climate change. Under the initiative of environmentalists, the supply of oil has been suppressed, and the demand for metals for the production of batteries and electric vehicles has been boosted.

Commodity currency rises, boom-sensitive stocks are bullish

The rising trend of raw materials led to a strong rise in commodity currencies.Australian Dollar、String sourceMonday toUSDAll reached new highs since at least April 2018.

Rising inflation is also beneficial to business-sensitive stocks, including energy, industrial and financial stocks. Since late September last year, the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (code KBE) has risen 71%, far outpacing the market S&P 500’s 21% rise over the same period.

The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (code XLE) in the energy sector has risen 53% since late September last year; in the industrial sector, Boeing (BA-US) Has performed impressively. Since late September last year, the increase has been almost twice that of the S&P 500. Although the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (code XLI) was dragged down by defense and medical stocks, the increase was only comparable to the broader market.

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