Inflation: At 2.9% in September – Food price rise (tables) –

Inflation reached 2.9% in September from 3% in August, according to ELSTAT.

Shortly before the TIF until today, the government has indulged in the construction of a narrative, in which it is stated that prices in Greece are “falling” and inflation is being tamed. Both the Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and the co-competent ministers Takis Theodorikakos and Kostis Hatzidakis have made official positions in this context. However, reality comes to disprove them, with food inflation once again exceeding the general index and reaching 3.2%.

We had significant price increases on an annual basis in the Housing groups (5.9%), in Hotels-cafes-restaurants (5.5%) and in Clothing – Footwear (4.4%). Food inflation also remains high with the increase in prices compared to a year ago reaching 3.2% in September.

At the same time, the price of olive oil has increased on an annual basis by 38.9%, fish by 9.9% and fruit by 7.7%.

11.3% was more accurate current and 20.2% the natural gasbut a decrease of 12.6% is recorded in fuels and lubricants.

Also, the cost of air transport shot up 36.4%, while 14% increases were recorded in health insurance premiums and 5.6% in vehicle insurance premiums.

Inflation: The numbers

From the comparison of the General CPI of the month of September 2024 with the corresponding Index of September 2023 there was an increase
2.9% compared to an increase of 1.6% recorded during the corresponding comparison of the year 2023 with 2022.

The General CPI during the month of September 2024, compared to August 2024 showed an increase of 1.8%, against an increase also
1.8% recorded during the corresponding comparison of the previous year.

The average CPI for the twelve-month period October 2023 – September 2024, compared to the corresponding twelve-month Index
October 2022 – September 2023, showed an increase of 3.0%, compared to a 4.7% increase recorded in the corresponding comparison
of the twelve months of October 2022 – September 2023 with the twelve months of October 2021 – September 2022.

Inflation: Comparison of September 2024 with September 2023

The increase of the General CPI by 2.9% in the month of September 2024, compared to the corresponding Index of September 2023,
it came mainly from changes in the following groups of goods and services:

1. From the increases of the indicators by:

• 3.2% in the group Food and non-alcoholic beverages, due mainly to price increases in: bread, meats (general), fresh
fish, olive oil, fruit (in general), preserved or processed vegetables, sugar-chocolate-sweets-ice cream, mineral
water-soft drinks-fruit juices. Part of this increase was offset by a decrease in prices mainly in: pizzas
and pies, pasta, cheeses.

• 1.7% in the group Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, due mainly to an increase in prices of alcoholic beverages (not served).

• 4.4% in the Clothing and footwear group, due to price increases in clothing and footwear.

• 5.9% in the Housing group, due to an increase in prices mainly in: house rents, house repair and maintenance,
electricity, natural gas, heating oil. Part of this increase was offset by the decrease mainly of
of solid fuel prices.

• 3.7% in the Health group, mainly due to price increases in: pharmaceutical products, medical products, medical, dental and paramedical services, hospital care.

• 0.6% in the Communications group, mainly due to an increase in the prices of telephone services.

• 1.2% in the Leisure-Cultural activities group, mainly due to price increases in: processing equipment
information, small leisure items-flowers-pets, entertainment and cultural services, newspapers-books and
stationery, holiday package. Part of this increase was compensated by the decrease mainly in prices in
audio and video processing equipment, leisure and cultural durables.

• 3.5% in the Education group, mainly due to price increases in: preschool and primary education fees,
secondary education fees, tertiary education fees.

• 5.5% in the Hotels-Cafes-Restaurants group, mainly due to an increase in prices in restaurants-patisseries-cafes-canteens.

• 3.6% in the Other goods and services group, mainly due to price increases in: hairdressers and shops
personal care, other personal items, health insurance premiums, vehicle insurance premiums. Part of that increase
it was offset by the decrease in prices mainly in other types of personal care.

2. From the reductions of the indicators by:

• 0.6% in the group Durable goods-Household goods and services, mainly due to a decrease in prices of immediate goods
household consumption. Part of this decrease was offset by the increase in prices mainly in: furniture and
decorative items, household services.

• 1.1% in the Transportation group, mainly due to a decrease in prices in: used cars, fuel and lubricants.
Part of this decrease was compensated by the increase in prices mainly in: new cars, spare parts
and car accessories, maintenance and repair of personal transportation equipment, other services related to
personal transport, air passenger tickets.

Compare with August

The increase of the General CPI by 1.8% in the month of September 2024, compared to the corresponding Index of August 2024,
it came mainly from changes in the following groups of goods and services:

1. From the increases of the indicators by:

• 0.7% in the group Food and non-alcoholic beverages, due mainly to price increases in: poultry, fresh fruit, fresh
vegetables, potatoes. Part of this increase was offset by the decrease in prices mainly in: pizzas and pies,
pasta, cured meats, fresh fish, fresh whole milk, cheeses, oils and fats.

• 0.6% in the group Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, mainly due to an increase in prices of alcoholic beverages (not served).

• 38.2% in the Clothing and Footwear group, due to prices returning to pre-summer sale levels.

• 0.9% in the Housing group, mainly due to price increases in: house rents, electricity, natural gas.

• 0.4% in the group Durable goods-Household goods and services, due to an increase in prices mainly in household services.
Part of this increase was offset by the decrease in prices mainly for household items of immediate consumption.

• 0.6% in the Health group, mainly due to price increases in: medical products, hospital care.

• 2.6% in the Education group, mainly due to price increases in: preschool and primary education fees,
secondary school fees.

• 0.4% in the Hotels-Cafes-Restaurants group, mainly due to an increase in prices in restaurants-patisseries-cafes-canteens, hotels-motels-inns.

• 0.5% in the Other goods and services group, mainly due to an increase in prices of other personal items.

2. From the reductions of the indicators by:

• 2.4% in the Transport group, mainly due to a decrease in prices in: fuel and lubricants, passenger transport tickets
by plane.

Forecast

The main issue remains what will happen this year in our country, as the real conditions are very difficult. For this reason and perhaps also the forecasts contained in the Medium Term presented by the government may seem optimistic. Based on what is reported in the text, inflation based on the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices is expected to decrease significantly to 2.8% in 2024 and to decelerate further to 2.1% in 2025 from 4.2% in 2023, as the sharp decline of energy prices, despite fluctuations and the de-escalation of food prices are increasingly contributing to the deceleration of inflation. Structural inflation is expected to decline gradually, reflecting the mild deceleration in services inflation.

Source: ot.gr