In economics, predicting the future is something we get used to very lightly. Many dared (during confinement in 2020) to diagnose an L-shaped recovery, a U-shaped recovery or, in the worst case, a catastrophe similar to what happened with the real estate puncture of 2007, all of this always entailing consequences of their analysis and predictions.
I do not mean to say that we do not have to be realistic, nor do I pretend that we live in constant optimism but, both for consumers and for companies, the state of mind is fundamental. It has always been said that for economic fluidity (for some and for others) what is needed is stability. Faced with the uncertainty of what could come and without knowing the consequences of this pandemic that we have not yet got rid of, and with which we will have to learn to live, many companies compressed spending and reduced their stocks; On the other hand, many families saw their savings increase due to reduced mobility.
That was when the perfect storm occurred in 2021, a mismatch between supply and demand: factories that had been producing at 70% before a spike in consumption in goods (not in services, which have been the affected sectors in this crisis) or let’s say for a large part of the industry a V-shaped recovery. This gave rise, as we all know, to the crisis of raw materials, constant rise in prices and lack of supplies has been the mantra throughout the past year.
We reach 2022 with the hope that everything will stabilize: prices, supplies, sea freight, etc…, but on the other side of the coin we are facing the rise in electricity, fuel and rising inflation that gives This gives rise to the loss of purchasing power of families, who, after all, are the final consumers of all those products that we manufacture. Despite an increase in billings due to the rise in consumption (not profits), dragging prices that have not yet been updated for fear of being left out of the market, and once again a latent virus that is reducing the workforce and production of many companies, thus reducing its profitability, we have the obligation to explain and make people understand that all that glitters is not gold. Above all, given the imminent renewal of sectoral agreements, we find ourselves with many companies with little room for manoeuvre, which either cannot assume a further increase in their expenses or must pass it on to their prices with the consequent risk of seeing a drop in their short-term sales, resulting in headcount reductions and a loss of employment.
It is well known that the year ends with a rise in the CPI above the rise in wages, but… Where is the balance?
That is the basis for everything to continue in harmony like an orchestra in which all its instruments sound on par and well.
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