Indonesia’s Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto Leads in Unofficial Results of Presidential Election
Indonesia’s Defense Minister, Prabowo Subianto, a former army general, has emerged as the frontrunner in the race to become the country’s next president, according to early unofficial results. The “quick counts,” which are a sampling of actual vote counts at various voting locations, show that Prabowo has won a simple majority of the ballots cast in Wednesday’s elections, with his percentage of the popular vote at nearly 60%. This is significantly higher than what pre-election opinion polls had predicted.
The former governor of Jakarta, Anies Baswedan, is currently in second place, with just under a quarter of the votes. Ganjar Pranowo, the ex-governor of Central Java, is in third place. These results are based on snap counts released by independent pollsters, including Indikator Politik, Litbang Kompas, and Lembaga Survei Indonesia.
These elections are significant for Indonesia, as they could impact the country’s democratization process and determine if it will achieve developed status by 2045. With over 200 million eligible voters, this is only the sixth election since Indonesia emerged from a military dictatorship in the late 1990s.
Official results are not expected until at least a month later. The winner will replace President Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, who has served the maximum of 10 years and is not standing for re-election.
Anies Baswedan, who is currently trailing behind Prabowo in the unofficial results, remains hopeful and cautious. He stated, “It’s too early to conclude anything… so we have to wait.” Anies also mentioned reports of possible irregularities and emphasized the need to wait for more specific information.
The Prabowo campaign and Indonesia’s General Elections Commission, or Komisi Pemilihan Umum (KPU), have not yet responded to requests for comment.
The presidential candidates in Indonesia have formed different coalitions and have specific running mates. Anies Baswedan is running with the backing of three parties, including the secular Nasdem Party and the conservative Islamic Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). His vice-presidential running mate is Muhaimin Iskandar, also known as Cak Imin, who is the head of the National Awakening Party (PKB).
Ganjar Pranowo, the third candidate, was nominated by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). His vice-presidential running mate is Mohammad Mahfud Mahmodin.
Prabowo Subianto was nominated by his Gerindra Party, and his vice-presidential running mate is Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the eldest son of President Jokowi. Gibran’s addition to the ticket was made possible after laws were amended to allow candidates below 40 years old to run for president or vice president if they have held regional office.
While Prabowo has pledged to continue Jokowi’s economic policies, it remains unclear if he will support Jokowi’s plans to relocate the national capital from Jakarta to Nusantara and turn Indonesia into a global hub for battery manufacturing.
The unofficial results may still change as more data becomes available. However, the methodologies used by the three organizations that have released their quick count results are considered reliable. Teneo’s Managing Director, Bob Herrera-Lim, wrote in a client note that it is unlikely that Prabowo received less than the majority. He also mentioned that Prabowo will likely aim to have a ruling coalition with at least 60% to 70% of parliamentary seats to ensure his political agenda cannot be held hostage by smaller parties.
To win outright, a candidate must obtain more than 50% of the national vote and at least 20% of ballots cast in more than half of Indonesia’s 38 provinces. If no candidate achieves this, a runoff between the two best-performing candidates will be held.
The voting process took place on Wednesday, with voters having six hours to cast their five ballots for their preferred presidential and vice-presidential pairing, legislators at various levels, and regional senators.
Anies Baswedan has campaigned on deepening Indonesia’s nascent democracy, setting himself apart from Prabowo’s controversial past. Prabowo was once a special forces commander and was dishonorably discharged from the military in 1998. He has been accused of capturing and torturing democracy activists and leading a massacre in East Timor in 1983. Despite these allegations, Prabowo has rebranded himself as a “cute” grandpa, showcasing his awkward dance moves on social media to appeal to young voters.
The minimum voting age in Indonesia is 17, and more than half of the electorate was born after 1980.
These unofficial results provide an early glimpse into the outcome of
