Indonesian Presidential Election 2024: Controversies and Connections with Jokowi’s Family Entrants

2024-02-07 17:58 United News Network Feng Jiacheng Indonesian President Joko Widodo (middle) fully assisted his eldest son Jibrang (right) to win a place in this presidential election. Jokowi…

In 1997, the Asian financial crisis swept through developing countries in Southeast Asia, and Indonesia’s strongman presidentSuhartoThe crony capitalist network created by (Suharto) and used for political paybacks completely failed, causing a crisis of confidence in the Indonesian economy. The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate plummeted, finally triggering a perfect tsunami. There are calls for Suharto to step down from many places.Never extinguish the fire(Reformasi) movement, the governing group was also divided over the issue of selecting the “Crown Prince”, finally forcing Suharto to announce his resignation in May 1998, personally marking the beginning of the “Suharto Era” that lasted more than thirty years. period.

Joko Widodo (also known as Joko Widodo), who came from a humble background and had no connection with Suharto, won the presidential election in 2014. He was the first “outsider” to join the core of Indonesian power after “The Fire Will Not Go Out”. In the ten years from 2004 to 2014, this rising political star started his career as the mayor of Solo, Central Java, and suddenly jumped to Jakarta as the chief minister, and then entered the presidential palace within two years, seeming to symbolize “Suharto”. “Era” is gone forever.

It has been 26 years since the collapse of the Suharto regime. The “fire will not be extinguished” reform fervor and the infighting among political elites have become accelerators for democratization in Indonesia. So far, four presidential elections have been held by direct popular vote. February 14 this year will be the fifth direct presidential and parliamentary election since the post-Suharto era. The three candidates in this election are former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan (No. 1), the popular current Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto (No. 2), and the former Governor of Central Java Province. Ganjar Pranowo (No. 3).

▌Controversy over the second-generation political candidate’s candidacy

However, the most controversial person in this election is not these candidates, but Prabowo’s deputy, Solo Mayor Gibran Rakabuming Raka. Gibran’s other identity is Jokowi’s eldest son.

It is not uncommon for the second generation of politicians to run for office.In fact, many well-known figures in Indonesian political circles were born from prominent families: Prabowo’s grandfather was Margono Djojohadikusumo, the founder of Bank Negara Indonesia, and Jokowi’s Democratic Party Chairman of the Party of Struggle (PDI-P)Megawati(Megawati Sukarnoputri) is the founding president of IndonesiaSukarno(Sukarno)’s daughter. In local elections, politicians gaining the support of political families is an important condition for winning election results. The inextricable link between political families, local-level public administration systems (especially local officials, police, judges) and party branches has long been a tacit reality. sometimes,Village/community levelThe election is an occasion of struggle between political families, in which it is difficult for nameless ordinary people to participate.

Gibrallon’s controversy actually stems from the way he ran for office. Indonesia’s “Election Law” (or Law No. 7) passed in 2017 stipulates that candidates for president and vice president must be over 40 years old. However, Jibrang is only 36 years old this year and does not originally meet the legal age. However, last year, a political party filed a judicial review with the Indonesian Constitutional Court, requesting that the legal age of candidates be lowered to 35 years old. The complainants include the youth-oriented Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), which changed its party chairman during the appeal and was succeeded by 30-year-old Kaesang Pangareb. The young new chairman “happens” to be Jibron’s brother and Joko Widodo’s youngest son.

Anwar Usman, the chief justice of the Constitutional Court who heard the bill, also married Jokowi’s sister in 2022. In other words, in the eyes of the outside world, an interrogation process that is full of legal procedures on the surface is actually just a “family drinking” game among family members. The important characters participating in the “performance” are all Jokowi’s relatives. .

Under the above circumstances, the ruling of the Constitutional Court was naturally in favor of Gibran: with 5 votes in favor and 4 votes against, the Constitutional Court ruled that as long as anyone has experience as a regional leader (governor, county magistrate and mayor), even if he has not If you are over 40 years old, you are still eligible to run for president and vice president.Adjudication resultIt’s like tailor-made for Gibran.Although the ruling ultimately attracted criticism from civil society groups, Anwar was also removed from his post by the Constitutional Court’s “Ethics Committee” for violating the principles of neutrality and impartiality due to conflicts of interest. Absent from the ruling, but suddenly participated in the most critical resolution), but the relevantGibrald’s qualificationsdecision is not affected.

Gibran’s candidacy and the Constitutional Court’s ruling naturally put Jokowi at the center of public opinion. So far, Jokowi has always stated that he remains neutral and has not openly favored any party.However, since the beginning of the presidential campaign, Jokowi has been reported several times to be with Prabowo.have dinner togetherand Gibraldin is running as a deputy, and the “Indonesian Solidarity Party” led by Gisan has joined Prabowo’s camp, which is obviously a public bet.

In the Indonesian presidential election, the No. 2 presidential and vice-presidential candidates are the current Defense Minister Prabowo (left) and the elder of the current President Joko Widodo… The dispute over the candidacy of Joko Widodo’s son Jibron was finally decided by the Constitutional Court, but Chief Justice Anwar is actually Jokowi’s sister…

▌The president’s son joins forces with his political opponents to run for office?

Interestingly, Prabowo has run for the presidency three times in a row (in 2014, 2019 and 2024), and he was Jokowi’s opponent two times. The former has repeatedly mobilized populist and conservative Islamist forces in the past. , which is completely different from the moderate (but equally populist), secular and developmental ideology represented by Jokowi.After the results of the two elections were announced, Prabowo even questioned the emergence ofelection fraud, members of his group even called on supporters to take to the streets to participate in the “People Power” protest, hinting at promoting street confrontations. In the end, Jokowi and Prabowo staged a grand reconciliation drama in the Jakarta subway, and invited the latter to join the ruling team as defense minister a few months later, which resolved the danger of Indonesia’s separation.

Against the above background, the dramatic development of the alliance between Jokowi and Prabowo seems difficult to understand. Moreover, one of Prabowo’s opponents this time, Ganchar, who was nominated by the Democratic Party of Struggle, is from the same sect as Jokowi. So why did Jokowi and his son (who both belong to the Democratic Struggle Party) not hesitate to violate the ethics of the party? Cooperate with Prabowo?

Jokowi secretly supports Prabowo and established a separate faction to compete with his own party. To some extent, this is just the result of his years of struggle with party chairman Megawati. It is an open secret that the two have a seemingly estranged relationship: Jokowi joined the party in 2004 in order to run for the mayor of Solo City. However, he has always used a people-friendly and down-to-earth image to canvass for votes, indicating that the interests of the party will not override the people and rarely show it publicly. One’s own “party spirit”. Almost until 2013, when Jokowi was preparing to step into the presidency, he often wore the party’s red checkered shirt in public.

However, even though Jokowi’s popularitytranscendOther party elders (including Megawati’s daughter Puan Maharani) are also highly recommended by individual party central officials and local branches. However, Megawati also faces the “Sukarno family faction” within the party. ” pressure, so he delayed expressing his position untilMarch 2014– that is, three months before the election – officially supported him (opponent Prabowo made his intention to run public in September 2013). In a media interview in 2013, Jokowi revealed that he and Megawatifirst meetAt the time, the latter questioned whether his skinny frame would hinder his ability to serve as mayor.

Jokowi’s firstappointmentAs a member of the cabinet, he was also subject to Megawati’s party orders and was forced to hand over certain key cabinet positions to the Democratic Party for decision-making. At the 2015 Democratic Struggle Party Congress, Megawati “reminded” Jokowi in a high-profile manner that he must firmly implement the party’s line, meaning that Megawati will always be above Jokowi and serve as the real behind-the-scenes command.

However, as Jokowi deepens his political operations, his sense of power becomes more acute, and he is naturally unwilling to serve as a puppet leader. In 2015, Jokowi used the National Corruption Commission to accuse Budi Gunawan, a close associate of Megawati, to successfully prevent the latter from assuming the post of police chief. Since then, Jokowi has repeatedly recruited other parties in Congress into his “working cabinet” and reorganized the candidates for cabinet ministers, slowly placing close associates (especially retired military generals) in order to balance the influence of the Democratic Party group in the cabinet and ensure that he It is the core of political leadership. When Jokowi reshuffled the cabinet for the second time in 2016, he emphasized that ministers only have a supporting role, rather than leading the governance philosophy, and publicly demanded that ministers and officials must abide by the governance philosophy of the president and vice president, slowly permeating the message that he is determined to get rid of May. Gyawati bound determination.

Jokowi and the Chairman of the Democratic Struggle Party Megawati (the lady in the poster behind) have been inseparable for many years, and Jokowi has also actively appointed…

▌Pursue historical achievements and pursue the plan of relocating the capital

When Jokowi begins his second term, his first priority is to promote his plan to move the capital. Jokowi has always hoped to witness the completion of the capital relocation plan before the end of his presidential term, viewing this as a good opportunity to make achievements and become famous forever. After all, the plan to move the capital is a “designated action” for almost every president, but only Jokowi successfully executed it. This is naturally a historical moment. However, the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 postponed all plans. In 2022, officials in Jokowi’s cabinet have proposed from time to time to postpone the date of the 2024 presidential election, and there are even rumors of promoting constitutional amendments to ensure that other political opponents cannot interrupt Jokowi’s grand projects. Finally, under the pressure of public opinion and the Democratic Struggle Party, talk about constitutional amendments gradually faded away.

At the same time, the outside world generally believes that the candidates for the 2024 presidential election will definitely include Prabowo, who has suffered repeated defeats, and Anis, who considers himself an opposition leader. As for the Democratic Struggle Party, the largest party in Congress, it has once again fallen into the “presidential candidate procrastination”. According to outside interpretations, Jokowi seems to prefer Ganchar as his “successor”, but he has never been able to get a positive answer from Megawati.

In addition, Megawati’s leading role in the party has formed a certain constraint on Ganchar, and the situation is the same as Jokowi’s. In 2023, the Democratic Party of Struggle and provincial governors, including Ghanchar, opposed Israel’s participation in the U-20 Youth Football World Cup, resulting in Indonesia losing the right to host it. Their attitude was obvious.Different from Jokowi. From about now on, Jokowi slowly turns his focus to Prabowo. At least the latter has deliberately created the image of himself as Jokowi’s “successor” in recent years and will not suddenly stop the plan to move the capital.

As for Jokowi’s true successor, Jibron, joining Prabowo’s team also symbolizes that Jokowi is betting his high popularity on this former political opponent to ensure that he has enough resources to win in the first round of elections. With more than half of the votes, he can directly capture the first round of the election to prevent Prabowo from being unexpectedly defeated in the second round of one-on-one elections (especially when the opponent is very likely to be Anis, who opposes the relocation of the capital). In addition, Jokowi’s assistance to Jibrang and Jisan in participating in political affairs means that he can continue his plan to move the capital through family members, thereby ensuring that his success will not be taken away from others or cut in half midway.

Indonesia has been discussing moving the capital from Jakarta for many years. During Jokowi’s term, he vigorously promoted the capital relocation plan and tried his best to ensure that his successor would actually implement it…

▌Jokowi’s political family takes shape

In the context of Indonesia’s political system, establishing a “political family” is almost a way for politicians to protect their interests, and it is essentially harmless. In fact, although political parties in Indonesia are temporarily established, most of them only operate in the form of “one-person parties”. Most of the influence of political parties revolves around the party chairman and his cronies, and the family elders in the “political family”. The approach to steering is not much different. Indonesia has entered the post-Suharto era of democratization, decentralization, and local headship, which actually encourages this kind of populism that focuses more on personal charm and less on political platforms and “party spirit.”After all, except for a few religious-based political parties in Indonesia, the ideologies of most political parties in Indonesia areQuite similarmaking the candidate’s personal style more important.

However, the biggest difference between “political families” and political parties, apart from their size, is the latter’s status in the Constitution and the Electoral Law. After all, the smooth operation of democratization must rely on a certain degree of deindividuation, institutionalization, and organizational development. According to Indonesia’s “Election Law”, any candidate for president or vice president must first obtain the support of a political party, and the party (or party alliance) must obtain at least 25% of the votes in the last parliamentary election, or 20% of the seats in the parliament. This kind of “privilege” cannot be matched by political families. Jisan took control of the Indonesian Unity Party last year, providing a vehicle for Jokowi and his cronies to release political energy. By controlling the party’s nomination power, he can influence the future presidential candidates and at the same time declare that he is free from the interference of the Megawati family. Understood from this perspective, the “political family” is just a continuation of the traditional patriarchal style and a political tool beyond the express provisions of the Indonesian political system.

In fact, from the moment Gibrand announced his intention to run for mayor of Solo City in 2019, it already meant that the “Jokowi Family” was taking shape. In addition to Jibrang and Jisan, Jokowi’s son-in-law and Medan mayor Bobby Naustion is also an important figure in the family. Therefore, the biggest controversial point in this election is not simply how Jokowi builds his own “family dynasty”, but whether in order to satisfy his political goals, he will sacrifice the laws and regulations promoted by the “Fire Will Not Go Out” reformers.

In the movie “The Dark Knight,” prosecutor Harvey Dent made it clear: “You can die a hero, or you can live long enough to see yourself become a bad guy.”

Witnessing Jokowi’s step-by-step involvement in the political arena as an “outsider”, one might not have expected that ten years later he would become better at playing power than the political tycoons of the “New Order” era.

Joko Widodo (left) has been in politics for less than 20 years, and has served as President of Indonesia for 10 years. He started from being a political amateur unfamiliar to the outside world, and now…

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Editor/Wang Yingzhi

Feng Jiacheng

Southeast Asia Observer, the scope of observation includes the political ecology of Southeast Asian countries and the diplomatic role of ASEAN.

In-depth column Indonesia

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2024-02-07 03:01:34