Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo will visit Putin in Moscow today. Both countries have good relations with each other and Indonesia does not want to exclude Russia from participating in the G20 summit later this year.
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Putin to Bali?
The G20 summit is a summit that brings together the nineteen richest countries in the world and the European Union. The chairman of the summit, this year Indonesia, determines whether countries are allowed to attend and whether additional countries are invited. In addition to Putin, there is also an invitation to Ukraine and President Zelensky.
Putin has already said he will accept the invitation to the summit in Bali, but it is not yet clear whether he will attend physically or via video link.
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A number of Western countries, led by the United States, have been lobbying Indonesia for some time to exclude Russia from the summit. But for now, President Widodo stands by his decision.
‘Signal to the West’
According to our Russia correspondent Eva Hartog, it is very important for Putin to be present at the summit. Hartog: “Putin can demonstrate to his own population that his plan to map Russia is working and that he still counts on the world stage.”
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But according to Hartog, Russia mainly wants to use the invitation as a signal to the West.
“Putin wants to show the West that there are enough countries that want to continue to talk and do business with Russia.”
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Opportunity for Russia
That is exactly what the western countries, and especially the United States, want to avoid. They want Russia to be isolated as much as possible, thereby weakening the economy.
There are already countries such as China and India that have always continued to do business with Russia, but according to Han ten Broeke (director of The Hague Center of Strategic Studies) there are many countries that do not know exactly how to deal with Russia.
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According to Ten Broeke, those countries (especially from Asia, Latin America and Africa) are now looking at Indonesia. If that country invites Russia and lets it participate in the talks at the G20 summit, that also offers them options for trade with the Russians.
And vice versa, this offers an opportunity for Russia: it must now rely on these collaborations to keep its economy afloat.
Anti-Western power bloc?
According to our correspondent, Russia ideally wants to set up the collaborations as large as possible. Hartog: “Putin would of course prefer that countries rally behind him in a kind of anti-Western bloc.”
Such a bloc has already been considered in the Kremlin: a cooperation between Brazil, India, China, Indonesia, Turkey, Mexico, Indonesia and Russia itself should counterbalance the cooperation between Western countries.”
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But, Hartog argues, even if certain countries with strong economies remain in the middle, for example by not participating in the sanctions against Russia in the context of business as usual, Moscow in this situation already counts as a gain.
Indonesia’s invitation (and thus the absence of a sanction) is therefore a first victory for Russia. Although it is still unclear whether the G20 will continue. Several western countries are threatening a boycott if the invitation to Russia remains.
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