Indonesia 2024 Presidential Election Survey Results: Prabowo-Gibran Lead in Java Island

Editorial Team, CNBC Indonesia

Thursday, 12/14/2023 04:00 WIB

Photo: Ganjar Pranowo (left), Prabowo Subianto (center), and Anies Baswedan (right). (AP/Tatan Syuflana)

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The Indonesian Survey Current Institute (ASI) released the results of a survey on the electability of presidential and vice presidential candidates on the island of Java. The Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka pair is in first place with an electability of 34.2%.

The survey was carried out from 28 November to 5 December 2023 on the island of Java which includes Banten, West Java, DKI Jakarta, Central Java, Special Region of Yogyakarta, East Java. The survey was conducted face to face using a multistage random sampling method.

This survey involved 1,200 respondents. The margin of error reaches +- 2.9% at a 95% confidence level.

The Executive Director of the Indonesian Survey Flow, Ali Rif’an, explained the reasons for carrying out the survey specifically on the island of Java. He said half of the voters in the 2024 election were on the island of Java.

“Why was the survey conducted on Java Island? Demographically, KPU data says 56% of voters are on Java Island. Javanese voters are spread throughout Indonesia,” said Ali in the ASI survey release entitled 2024 Presidential Election Electoral Map on Java Island at the Alia Hotel, Cikini, Central Jakarta, Monday (11/12/2023).

The survey findings from ASI show that the Prabowo-Gibran pair won the highest number of votes on the island of Java with an electability of 34.2%. Second place is occupied by Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud Md with an electability of 30.7% and followed by Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar with an electability of 26.3%.

In this survey there were voters who did not know/did not answer with a figure of 8.7%. This ASI survey also captured the finding of voters who would not change their choice of presidential and vice presidential candidates or strong voters at 48.6%.

“Meanwhile, those who say it can still change are swing voters 44.0% and undecided voters 7.4%,” said Ali.

The ASI survey also explains the reasons why voters on the island of Java determine their vote in the 2024 presidential election. The first factor is a work program with a figure of 30.7%. Factors that also influence the respective rankings are honest and trustworthy character at 19.5%, experience in government at 10.6%, intelligence at 8.0%, and caring about the people at 7.9%.

Ali said the survey findings showed that the vote basin on the island of Java was still contestable. He believes that there is no presidential-vice presidential candidate pair that dominates the island of Java.

“The competition for presidential and vice presidential candidates on the island of Java is still very competitive because no one has a dominant lead,” said Ali.

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