ROMA – Giorgia Meloni wants 8 billion from Europe. Not a euro less, in fact the request could even be adjusted upwards. In any case it won’t be enough to solve it the troubles of the next Budgetwhich will require many more billions, around 22-23 in the barely sketched estimates that are starting to circulate in government circles.
Unless, but the backlash would be very heavy, the prime minister decides to raise taxes, canceling or reducing the cut to the tax wedge and Irpef which expires at the end of this year.
To understand why at Palazzo Chigi there is already talk of flexibility, and therefore of extra-deficit for the manoeuvre, we must start from the move that precedes the will to openin estate, a negotiation with the new European Commission precisely to obtain margins on the budget law.
The card to play immediately is called Def “frozen”. Tomorrow the Prime Minister and the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti will decide whether to proceed with the scheme agreed last Friday, during a face-to-face meeting in which the possibility of approving an economic and financial document with the sole trend picture, without measurements. And so a programmatic scenario to be included in the budget documents in September, in view of the budget.
Public accounts
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It wouldn’t be unheard of because the last Nadef of the Draghi government – it was September 28, 2022 – did not define the public finance policy objectives. But he was a resigning executive, who left the responsibility for indicating the route to the incoming centre-right.
Among other things in the last few hours the Mef technicians, especially those in the Accounting Department, would not have hidden their opposition to the idea of giving up indicating the numbers of the program. Discontents which, however, at the moment do not seem to have affected the “political” approach that the Prime Minister wants to give to the Def.
Even if in the end a slightly different pattern prevails, with the deficit and debt values in the policy framework slightly higher than those of the trend, the government’s second move would not change. Thus, there would be a maximum of between two and four billions.
Giorgetti is not against the “crippled” Def: the programmatic scenario – is the reasoning – would not take into account the new instructions on the public accounts that Brussels will send to Italy in July. In short, the numbers risk being written in water, above all the possibility of gaining flexibility for the maneuver would be lost.
The real game will be played in the summer. The definition of the Budget will have to absorb the effects of the new Stability Pact: it will be the first act of the medium-term fiscal plan which requires a correction of the structural deficit of 0.5% per year.
The government will be able to count on a discount” linked to Pnrr investments and other factors, but will also have to deal with the excessive deficit procedure (the vulnerability is the 2023 debt) which the EU Commission will activate shortly before, in June.
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A dangerous intersection that makes it very difficult for Meloni to present himself in Europe to ask to open the extra-trade taps. But the request has already been taken into account, complete with numbers. The objective for 2025 is to set the trend deficit, in relation to GDP, at 3.6% and the programmatic deficit at 4%. Here are the eight billion to then be poured into the budget. But in this way the correction of the structural deficit would be significantly reduced, to the point of almost disappearing, without considering the issue of the infringement procedure.
However, the prime minister is counting on a friendly Europe. First the aseptic Def so as not to attract attention. Or to send a signal.
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– 2024-04-09 05:16:37
