/Pogled.info/ One of the most important events of the American presidential campaign is coming up, the so-called Super Tuesday. That day’s primaries effectively determine the finalists in November’s presidential election. Read how it all works there.
Why Tuesday?
This is how it has been historically. In November, voting will also be on Tuesday.
According to one of the versions, the tradition is connected with the fact that a hundred or two hundred years ago, farmers could not get to their fields on weekends. So they moved it up a few days.
Note to active voters: There is no good reason to vote on Tuesday. Moreover, it has a negative impact on voter turnout: only 47% on average – significantly less than in countries where elections are held on weekends.
The US primaries and caucuses have been going on for months. But on Super Tuesday, they are held simultaneously in 15 states. According to the already available results, after March 5, the favorites in the race will be determined. Hence the “super” prefix.
What happens in the primaries?
The American electoral system is constantly criticized, including at home. Unlike most democracies, the US does not have direct elections. In primaries, people vote for the party’s candidate. But the result is not their votes at all, but the number of delegates that this or that politician will receive from that state.
For example, in the last primary election in South Carolina, Nikki Haley was supported by almost 300 thousand people, Donald Trump – about 450 thousand. However, she has only three delegates, and he has 47. Biden, who received only 126 thousand votes in this state, has 55.
The number of voters in the major American parties varies and is distributed among states (and interior districts) in proportion to population. The main task of the campaign is participation in party assemblies (congresses). Both Democrats and Republicans will have these events over the summer. Delegates will then meet to confirm the party’s nomination.
Although all participants in the presidential race are commonly referred to as candidates, they are not actually candidates before the conventions. Now there is a battle for the nomination. But the nominee is the party’s final and only candidate for the post of head of state.
What’s at stake?
The Republican nomination requires 1,215 party delegates. The Democrats have more complicated rules, the qualification limit is higher – 1968. On Super Tuesday, the two parties fight for about a third of the delegates. Hence the great attention.
Republicans are betting on Donald Trump. He has six times more delegates than Haley on Super Tuesday. In the Nevada primary, she completely lost in the “against everyone” column, winning 33% (no one was supported by more than 60%). Haley is unlikely to pull out a win on Super Tuesday. But if that happens, the whole course of the race will change.
The Democrats’ “bench” is essentially empty. All currently available delegates are with President Joe Biden. His opponent, Congressman Dean Phillips, has no results so far.
What next?
Primary elections will continue in the remaining states. They will be finished in time for the summer conventions.
These primaries speak volumes about the mood of the population. Thus, in South Carolina, Trump surpassed Biden more than three times. And this will definitely affect the elections in November.
The rest of the summer and early fall are the crucial stage of the campaign. Both candidates know their primary opponent and can avoid the distraction of intra-party competition.
How will the elections be held in November?
The scheme is quite confusing. In November, Americans will vote for electors. Such are authoritative public figures and politicians.
It is also a tribute to tradition: when the population was illiterate, it was precisely such people who could protect the system from random figures and excessive populism. Another reason: previously it was difficult to inform voters about voting in time, and they actually delegated their vote.
The total number of electors is 538. There are as many representatives from each state as there are representatives in Congress (535). Plus three from metropolitan DC. To win, you need a simple majority: 50% + one vote, that is, at least 270.
An important nuance: the candidate receives not individual electors, but the entire state. And even if 49.9% are for the Republican, their votes will still go to the Democrat.
Is that fair?
In the end, whoever has, strictly speaking, less public support may win. More than 65 million Americans voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, but that resulted in only 227 electors. For Trump – 63 million, and he received 304 electors.
The same thing happened in 1876 (Rutherford Hayes won), 1888 (Benjamin Harrison), 2000 (George Bush Jr. – all three Republicans). After the November election, Americans have another 40 days to wait. At 41, voters “attached to the candidate” vote.
In theory, they can declare themselves against it, violating party discipline. In 1860, four members of the Democratic Party supported Republican Abraham Lincoln. However, this did not affect the result: Democrat Stephen Douglas would have lost anyway. But only in December will it be known who will become the new president of the USA.
Translation: V. Sergeev
