TIME.CO, Jakarta – Results of the latest Indonesian political indicators survey show eligibility reward Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto have improved over the past two months. Meanwhile, the eligibility of the NasDem party’s 2024 presidential candidate, Anies Baswedan, has declined.
From November to December 2022, support for Ganjar increased from 33.9% to 35.8% and Prabowo from 23.9% to 26.7%. Meanwhile Anies, from 32.2 percent fell to 28.3 percent.
“Ganjar and Prabowo have strengthened, Anies has decreased,” Indonesian Political Indicators Executive Director Burhanuddin Muhtadi said on Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2023.
The survey results show that Ganjar has consistently ranked first since April 2022. Meanwhile, second and third place look dynamic.
Prabowo is in second place, just below Ganjar until October 2022. The presidential candidate promoted by Gerindra was overtaken by Anies in the October-November period. Now, the comparison between the votes of Anies and Prabowo is relatively thin, i.e. 1.6%.
“But in general there is no dominant candidate. This means that the political map is still very open,” Burhanuddin said.
Anies’ support correlates with dissatisfaction with Jokowi’s performance
The Indonesian Political Indicator Survey also shows that Anies Baswedan’s electability level correlates with public dissatisfaction with the performance of President Joko Widodo alias Jokowi. The survey results show that when satisfaction with the President’s performance is low, Anies’ eligibility tends to increase.
“Those who are dissatisfied with Pak Jokowi’s performance, the pattern is the same as Anies’ eligibility level,” Burhanuddin said.
For example, in November 2022, satisfaction with the president’s performance was 66.2%, down from the previous month, which was 70.1%.
Meanwhile, Anies eligibility in November 2022 was 32.2%, up from 26.3% the previous month.
Meanwhile, Burhanuddin said satisfaction with the president affected Ganjar’s electability. When the public is dissatisfied with Jokowi, he said, Ganjar’s eligibility is also diminished.
“So Ganjar’s eligibility is framed by Pak Jokowi’s approval rating. It’s easy to explain, you are both from PDIP, maybe Ganjar is regarded as small Jokowi,” he said.
The poll results show that recently the satisfaction with Jokowi’s performance also affected the eligibility of Prabowo Subianto. Burhanuddin explained that previously Prabowo’s eligibility was not related to satisfaction with Jokowi’s performance.
However, he said, this pattern changed in November and December. As satisfaction with Jokowi’s performance declined, Prabowo’s eligibility also declined.
“This means that the satisfaction with Pak Jokowi’s performance is not only Ganjar, but recently also Pak Prabowo,” he said.
Survey of indicators will be held from 1 to 6 December 2022. The sampling uses the multi-stage random sampling method with a total sample of 1,220 people. The survey’s margin of error is approximately 2.9% with a 95% confidence level.
