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Can we soon look forward to a sunny and mild autumn? © Christian Ohde/IMAGO/Screenshot: wetter.net/YouTube/Collage: HEIDELBERG24
Heidelberg – The weather forecast for Baden-Württemberg has improved. The expected heavy rain will now mainly affect Austria and the Czech Republic.
Last week ended with a worrying forecast among weather experts: Central Europe was expected to be hit by a Vb low from Thursday (September 12th) until the weekend, which could bring record-breaking amounts of rain. For the south and southeast of Germany in particular, peak values of 300 to 400 liters per square meter were predicted in the 7-day forecast of the European weather model. But now, in the middle of the week, weather expert Dominik Jung from “water.net” in its current weather forecast the all-clear.
Change in the weather: Heavy rain moves eastwards and spares Baden-Württemberg
The latest calculations of the German weather model, carried out at midnight the previous day, indicate that Germany will probably not be as badly affected by the rainfall in the coming days as originally feared. Based on the current rain radar from “wetterzentrale.de” Meteorologist Jung concludes that the expected and sometimes enormous amounts of precipitation will probably shift further east.
According to current calculations, the centre of the rainfall, with amounts of 250 to 300 litres per square metre, is expected to be over parts of Austria and the Czech Republic. Germany will probably only be affected in its most south-eastern regions. This forecast also means relief for Baden-Württemberg: According to the current weather forecasts for the week, the state will probably be spared the unimaginable heavy rainfall and the associated flooding potential.
Good news for southern Germany – “Indian summer is coming”
For a more accurate forecast, it is advisable to look at other global weather models and their forecasts for Central Europe, such as the US weather model for Europe, GFS, and the British weather model, UKMO. Both models predict similar developments for the rest of the week, with the British model even assuming that the rainfall will move even further towards Eastern Europe.
However, as Jung emphasizes, all of these models are only suggestions for a possible course of the low pressure system and should therefore be viewed as approximations. In addition to the early all-clear for extremely high amounts of precipitation, the wetter.net meteorologist has another piece of positive news in his current weather forecast: “Indian summer is coming.”
Changeable weather at the weekend: rain, thunderstorms and strong gusts expected
What will the weather be like until the weekend? In Baden-Württemberg it will be mostly cloudy to overcast on Wednesday, with occasional moderate rain. The lowest temperature in the state will be 9 degrees, the highest temperature 15 degrees Celsius. The risk of precipitation in Baden-Württemberg on Wednesday is on average 85 percent. According to the German Weather Service (DWD), up to 30 liters of rain per square meter could fall in the Black Forest until Thursday night, and in some areas with heavy rainfall amounts of up to 40 liters per square meter are possible within hours.
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On Thursday, the weather in Baden-Württemberg will clear up a bit compared to the previous day, but in many places it will remain changeable. With alternating sunny and cloudy periods, there may also be rain showers in some areas, as Dominik Jung reports. The DWD is warning of isolated thunderstorms with heavy rain of around 15 liters per square meter, as well as strong to stormy gusts with speeds of 60 to 70 kilometers per hour, especially over the mountainous region and in the south of Baden-Württemberg. (sba)
