India is striving to absorb the shock and address the effects left by Beijing’s announcement of the absence of Chinese President Xi Jinping from the G20 summit, which will be held on its territory on Saturday and Sunday.
New Delhi continues to attempt to maintain composure and downplay the sudden and unexpected absence of the Chinese President – which will be the first time – from such a summit since he took power, and was also preceded by the expected absence of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Double hit
With the widening differences between the member states of the group, the absence has great significance, which may threaten the status of the group. It is also considered a double Chinese blow to the forum itself as a showcase for global leadership, and to India as a host country.
Observers believe that Xi’s absence from the summit is the clearest expression of the extent of the strong tension that governs the relationship between the two neighboring countries, and it also has indications that point to the attempts of Beijing and then Moscow to pull the rug from under the feet of the United States, which is at the forefront of leadership in global forums, and to hint at their ability to thwart this. Big gathering.
Despite the assurances of Indian Foreign Minister Subramaniam Jaishankar that the absence of Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin from the summit is “a normal matter and has nothing to do with his country,” angry outbursts from Indian and Western officials revealed the extent of the discomfort in Western and Indian decision-making circles.
Here is US President Joe Biden declaring that he feels “disappointed” by that absence, and statements continued that described absence from the summit as meaning only one thing, which is spoiling it, and this appeared in the words of more than one official: “They were working to spoil our work.” Shared throughout the year.
Modi mediates between President China (right) and his Russian counterpart during the G20 summit in Osaka in 2019 (Reuters)
Extreme tension
Relations between the two Asian giants were until recently moving towards rapprochement, but they have clearly become strained recently.
Just as the reasons for rapprochement between the two neighbors are many, what is straining their relations appears to be stronger on the foreseeable level, especially with the transformations and repositioning of their international and regional relations, in addition to the state of international alignment resulting from Western competition with China.
The tension is due to many reasons, some of which are considered logical in political norms. What do you think of two neighboring nuclear countries that share borders extending thousands of kilometers, with a clear difference in political positions, and intense competition to expand spheres of influence and extend control regionally and internationally, while the economic factor governs any rapprochement between them?
Border dispute
India and China share a border of about 3,500 kilometers, with overlapping areas over which the two countries dispute sovereignty, and although the two countries have adhered to long-standing agreements to avoid the use of any firearms along the de facto border known as the “Line of Actual Control,” clashes have occurred. Between their forces, the matter takes each time back to the brink of confrontation between them.
The Indian Foreign Minister announced months ago that Indo-Chinese relations cannot return to normal before the border dispute is resolved in line with the initial September 2020 agreement, which was reached with China, referring to rounds of diplomatic and military talks following border clashes that resulted in Deaths on both sides.
In a report published by the United States Institute of Peace last May under the title “Why Should We Be Worried About the India-China Border Dispute,” the report described the situation there as “one step forward, two steps back.”
He says that although border clashes are often followed by dialogue and other steps to reduce tensions, both sides have increasingly militarized their border policies and show no sign of abating.
In addition, India embraced the Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, who fled to India following a failed uprising in Tibet in 1959.
Relationship with the West
Relations with Western countries stand out as one of the points of tension between Beijing and New Delhi, and the two countries stand on two contradictory sides, especially in the relationship with the United States. In contrast to the Indo-American rapprochement, there are major points of tension that govern Beijing’s relationship with Washington.
Although China is not afraid of its neighbor’s ambitions, it is afraid of alliances with its traditional competitors such as the United States, Japan, and Australia.
The war in Ukraine also affected the nature of Beijing’s relations with Russia on the one hand and Western countries on the other, while India sought to hold the baton in the middle.
India reduced its trade dealings with China, in exchange for concluding major trade deals with European Union countries and other Western countries.
Alliance with Pakistan
The strong relations amounting to a quasi-alliance between China and Pakistan raise serious concerns for New Delhi, which accuses Beijing of helping Islamabad obtain nuclear technology and manufacture missiles.
The Kashmir issue emerges as a point of contention that is added to the tense relationship between India and China, as leaders in the ruling nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party government in India believe that China’s positions on the issue are directly in favor of Pakistan, and they demand the return of the part of Kashmir under Pakistani administration.
As for the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, its most important projects will be implemented from Pakistan, where China has invested about 60 billion dollars in infrastructure projects in Pakistan, within the so-called China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
The projects include the construction of a major highway to transport goods from the port of Gwadar in southern Pakistan. Access to this port gives China a foothold in the Arabian Sea, which raises New Delhi’s concern that this will be used to support Chinese naval operations in the Arabian Sea.
Economics complex
Observers estimate that the size of the Chinese economy is five times the size of the Indian economy, and while China sees itself as a strong competitor to the United States, India relies on a multipolar world in which it has an important role.
But at the same time, India has tremendous economic growth potential, and it is possible to achieve this if it opens up to American investments in a number of fields, especially technology.
Washington is trying to provide great temptations to companies to leave China and go to India, but fears of the lack of infrastructure for real economic growth discourage many of these companies from taking steps to go to India, in addition to fear for their interests in the huge Chinese market.
Although the United States was India’s largest trading partner last year, this does not mean that there are no differences between the two countries, the most important of which is New Delhi’s membership in the BRICS organization alongside Washington’s arch-rivals Beijing and Moscow.
In conclusion, it is worth mentioning that Beijing still considers India part of the US strategy to contain Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region, and therefore it opposes any role for India in this regard.
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2023-09-09 02:55:03
